Very Strong Jobs Numbers Underpinned By Wages

Bruegel-village-sceneMy Comments: Politicians of all stripes consider employment numbers relevant, and well they should. Right now we have the lowest unemployment numbers in this country that we’ve seen for a long time. And it’s all because of that idiot in the White House.

This came from a group called Bespoke Investment Group, a name I am not familiar with. Also, there are several charts that I’ve chosen not to replicate here. But if you want to see them, here’s the URL where I found this article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3662136-very-strong-jobs-numbers-underpinned-by-wages?ifp=0

Nov. 8, 2015

Friday’s Employment Situation Report delivered an extremely strong Nonfarm Payrolls print (+271,000 vs +185,000 expected and 142,000 previous, revised down to +135,000). While that headline number is extremely strong, the “guts” of the report were even stronger. Unemployment fell to 5.0%, the U6 measure of broader unemployment came in at 9.8% versus 9.9% expected and 10.0% previous, and the labor force participation rate held steady.

But the real story, in our view, was wages, which were boosted in part by a recovery from an extremely weak reading in September. Even still, the gains were nothing short of breathtaking. Below we show MoM annualized wage changes, along with the level for each industry.

As shown, there were broad-based wage gains across the economy in October, with Construction leading the way, up 18.2% MoM annualized. Other “low pre-requisite” industries also had steady gains, with Leisure and Hospitality printing a steady +4.82% MoM annualized level. The strength wasn’t universal (notable weakness in Manufacturing, Retail Trade, and Other Services) but overall this was a solid wage print. Looking at Construction, below we show the MoM annualized Construction Production and Nonsupervisory wage series, MoM annualized. This was the second-best print for that series in over 20 years, eclipsing one of the worst prints in years last month.

To get an idea of the broader trend in average hourly earnings, we show the YoY change in AHE for the last 10 years. Total private wages are +2.48%, while production and nonsupervisory earnings are +2.22%. The former is the best print of the recovery and a notable move above the range that had prevailed since the recovery began. Production and Nonsupervisory wages are still underperforming, but the spread between the two YoY series moved from 0.32% in July to 0.26% this month, notable progress.

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