The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won’t Slow It Down

My Comments: There are those who believe it's different this time. They are mystified some of us suggest the rules that govern economic activity are still valid. What is different is the current pandemic. It has the potential to kill you, especially if you're among the older cohort. Meanwhile we're looking at climate change, more …

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A Huge Market Crash Coming?

My Comments: I have no earthly idea if these guys are right or wrong. What I do know is that we're at war, we're losing, and the markets keep climbing as though their pants are on fire. There are clearly people who think it's different this time. I've been around those kinds of people before, …

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Market Update: The Tail Is Wagging The Dog

My Comments: After 45 years participating in the markets as an investor and as a Registered Investment Advisor Representative, I've become genuinely flummoxed by what we're seeing almost daily on Wall Street. In my limited frame of reference, it makes no sense. There are too many previously reliable signals that what we see happening suggests …

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Rogoff: Why This Time is Really Different

My Comments: Two things of note before you get too far into this post. One is that I distrust assertions that "...this time it's really different". Too often it proves to be wrong. This time it may be right. Two is that I'm scaling back my efforts to present a blog post every weekday. I've …

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The Fed’s Roadmap

My Comments: In earlier post's you've seen remarks from Scott Minerd, someone whose insights and judgements I've followed for years. As usual, he has some insightful comments about the current economy and how it might evolve going forward. I'll leave it to you to decide if he's right, but it's my firm belief he's not …

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A three-phase recession will be ‘unlike anything we have seen in modern history’

My Comments: Mindful that we could use some good news, this may disappoint most of you. But it is what it is and like so many messages these days, we all need to come together as one and fight like hell for a better world. But the reality of economics, just like the reality of …

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Stocks Have Reached a Tipping Point

My Comments: DOOM last Wednesday, EXCITEMENT yesterday, and now that it's Friday, we're somewhere in the middle and I can't find the right word for it. by John Authers \ 29 MAY 2020 \ https://tinyurl.com/y8b6j2wz When Things Move Fast Tipping Points, as Malcolm Gladwell pointed out, can be hard to spot in advance, but when …

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What If You Prepared For A Bear Market And No One Came?

My Comments: This is almost 180 degrees from what I posted yesterday. I share it to reinforce the notion none of really knows how the future will play out, just that it will. I have put my toes back in the water and if yesterdays post was prophetic, I'm not hurt too badly. On the …

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Prepare For A Bear Market

My Comments: Nothing much I can add to this... by ESI Analytics Limited \ 24 MAY 2020 \ https://tinyurl.com/y7tkvryd Summary This article discusses evidence that a bear market is likely to persist. It concludes that long-term investors are best off on the sidelines. A model portfolio shows how purchasing power can be preserved for large …

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Markets Likely To Get Worse Before Better

My Comments: On this Memorial Day 2020, we revere those who gave of themselves that we might survive and thrive. Thank you. Continuing with last weeks theme of what to do with money you have to invest, this caught my attention. Mindful this guy is a legitimate stock trader and knows what he's talking about, …

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