Category Archives: Investing Money

The Market Is Finally Getting the Joke

My Comments: I struggle, day to day, just like you, to figure out what the markets are going to do because so many of my friends and clients are exposed to market risk. Are you exposed to market risk? Does it worry you at all?

If not, you don’t need to read this. But if it does worry you, then perhaps a few minutes reading these comments from Scott Minerd will be good for you. And oh yes, there are ways to shift the risk of a downward correction to an insurance company and by so doing, preserve your principal and market gains from a crash.

Scott Minerd, February 21, 2018

The last two weeks have been pretty exciting, certainly a lot more interesting than anything we’ve been through over the last year. Given the recent market dislocation, there is a basis to rebalance portfolios and do trades to take advantage of relative repricing. At a macro level, it should not surprise anyone that rates have begun to rise—we have been talking about the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, we have been talking about how the Fed is behind the curve, how the market has not believed the Fed, and that someday this was going to have to get resolved, probably by the market having to adjust to the Fed’s statements. The market has now gotten the joke. I still don’t think the yield curve is accurately priced, but it is a lot closer today than where it was at the beginning of the year.

The concern, as I explained in A Time for Courage, is that now the market is moving from complacency—where it really did not believe the Fed was going to do what it said it was going to do—to a time when it has begun to realize that the Fed may be behind the curve. The market is now coming to believe that the Fed is not going to make three rate increases this year, it is going to make four. And so, rates start to rise and the whole proposition that the valuation of risk assets is based upon, which is faith in ultra-low rates and continued central bank liquidity, comes into question. As markets lose confidence in that view, investors have started to rearrange the deck chairs by repositioning portfolios.

Anytime we see strength in economic data, we are going to see upward pressure on rates. Upward pressure on rates is going to result in concern over the value of risk assets, and we are going to have a selloff in equity markets, or the junk bond market, or both. Credit spreads will widen. The reality of the situation, however, is that the amount of fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, the U.S. economy fast approaching full employment, the economic bounceback in Europe, and the pickup in momentum in Japan and in China are all real. Against this backdrop, even a harsh selloff in risk assets is not going to derail the expansion.

The Fed knows this, and for that reason the Fed is shrugging its shoulders and saying, “Okay, we don’t have a mandate around risk assets, but we do have a mandate about price stability and full employment. And it looks like we’re at full employment or beyond full employment, and the thing that seems to be at risk now is price stability. We’ve got to raise rates.”

What does that mean for investors? Markets are engaged in a tug of war between higher bond yields and the stock market. In the near term, the two markets will act as governors on each other: Higher bond yields will drive down stock prices, and lower stock prices will cause bond yields to stop rising and to fall.

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“The market is moving from complacency about the Fed to realizing that it may be behind the curve.”

Scott Minerd

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An analogue to today may be 1987. That year began against the backdrop of 1985/1986, which had seen a collapse in energy prices. In 1986 oil prices were very low, and concerns around inflation had diminished. The Federal Reserve had dragged its feet on raising rates. As we entered 1987, in the first few months of the year the stock market took off. By the time we got to March, stocks were up 20 percent. In April there was a hard correction of approximately 10 percent. As fear overtook greed, market participants became cautious on stocks. Going into that summer the stock market rallied another 21 percent from the April lows. By August we were at record highs; interest rates started to move up; the Federal Reserve was raising rates; the dollar was under pressure; and there were increasing concerns over inflation. The concern was the Fed was behind the curve as it accelerated rate increases. By October things were becoming unhinged. Bond yields had risen in the face of an extended bull market in stocks. The market reached a tipping point and began its infamous slide. By the time we got to the end of the year, the stock market for the year was up just 2 percent. That was the stock market crash of 1987, which wiped out about a third of the value of equities in the course of a few weeks.

Today, investors have the same sorts of concerns they had in 1987. For now, the market has gotten a reprieve. Soon, investors will start to have confidence in risk assets again. Risk assets like stocks will start to take off. Eventually, the perception will be that the Fed is falling behind the curve because inflation and economic pressures will continue to mount. Eventually the Fed will acknowledge that three rate hikes will not be enough, but it is going to raise rates four times in 2018, and market speculation will increase that there may be a need for five or six rate hikes. That will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

This is a highly plausible scenario for this year, but who knows how these things play out in the end. The reality today is that the economy is strong, interest rates are rising, and equities look fairly cheap. The Fed model right now would tell you the market multiple should be 34 times earnings. That is just fair value, not overvalued. And based on current earnings estimates for the S&P this year, the market multiple is closer to 17 times earnings. If stocks go down by 10 percent, the market multiple would drop to 15 times earnings. This would be getting into the realm of where value stocks trade. If there were a 20 percent selloff, you’re at a 14 times multiple. These market multiples don’t make sense. Markets do not price at 14 times earnings in an accelerating economic expansion with low inflation.

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Here’s Why Markets Will Head Downward

My Comments: Now that I’m in my mid 70’s, I’m far more worried about the ups and downs of the markets than I was 15-20 years ago. My ability to pay my monthly bills shrinks exponentially when the market crashes and my retirement money is exposed to that risk.

Ergo, I either do not have much money exposed to that risk, or I’ve repositioned it such that if there is downside risk, I’ve transferred that risk to a third party, ie an insurance company. You should consider doing the same.

BTW, QE means ‘quantitative easing’ and refers to the approach by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and to keep them low. That has  ended since the Fed is now slowly raising interest rates.

Clem Chambers,  Feb 12, 2018

I’m completely out of the markets in the U.S., Europe and the U.K. It seems as clear as it can be that the market is in for a huge down.

Now there are permabulls and permabears and if you read my articles over the years calling higher highs in the Dow you might think I am a permabull. But I am not, and if you hunt enough you will find my articles calling the credit crunch back in 2006-2007 here on Forbes and again the post crash bottom to buy in.

I can, and do, go both ways.

It has to be said, calling the market tops and bottoms is a tricky business and you can’t always be right, but there is only one thing you need to know and only one thing you have to know when investing and that is, “which way is the market going. ”

It sounds simple, almost asinine, but it isn’t because most people have no view on market direction, or if they do it’s automatically ‘up.’ As such, most people do not know which way the market is going and as such are at more risk that they need to be.

So where are we now in the markets?

Well, here is history:


This is a terrifying chart for anyone who is long.

Why? Well, first off you can see the very characteristics of the way the market moves have changed for the first time in years. Up close it’s even clearer:

The market has been going up like an angel for a year, the volatility has fallen to nonexistant. Forget the tendency for the price to go parabolic, it’s the day to day footprint of the price action that’s even more important here. Now this style has broken. Something has smashed the dream.

This giant burst of volatility tells us that there is huge uncertainty in the market.

So ask yourself what that involves?

It involves a change of investment environment and the participants in the market fighting that change.

“Buy the dip” is the brain dead mantra that has harvested lots of profits through the era of QE ever-inflating stock prices. What if that stops working? The crowd ‘buys the dips’ but the negative environments rains on that parade and the market begins to shake as the two conflicting forces meet.

Who do you put your money on? The crowd or a new market reality?

I bet against the crowd every time; you cannot fight market systemics.

So what is this new reality? What is causing this? The pundits are unclear, spouting all sorts of waffle that would have been true last year but weren’t and must somehow now be the reason.
Amazingly, few can see the obvious. Where are the headlines?

QE made equities go up. Does anyone disagree?

‘Reverse QE’ is making it go down. Reverse QE is where the Federal Reserve starts to sell its bond mountain for cash. It pushes up interest rates, it sucks money from the economy and straight out of the markets.

Is that ringing any bells?

Reverse QE started in September and month by month is ratcheting up. By next September it will hit $50 billion a month from the starting point in September of $10 billion.

The market is crashing because reverse QE is biting and it is going to bite harder.

There is trillions of dollars of reverse QE to come. Years of it.

Now I suppose it is hoped that U.S. fiscal loosening, tax cuts and overseas profitability repatriation will counterbalance this huge liquidity hit, but for sure this new cash will not flood straight into equities. I’m sure a strong economy is meant to pump liquidity into the loop via profits too, but will these do anything but hold the stock market at a flat level for many a year?

However, this is ‘unorthodox monetary policy’ in reverse. Do you remember when QE was called ‘unorthodox?’ Well, we are back in unorthodox territory again and this is not the happy slope of the mountain of cash, this is the bad news bloody scrabble down the other side with trillions of less money all around.

Somehow this ‘unorthodox’ unwinding of liquidity is aiming for a smooth transition. Well, they are going to need good luck with that and it looks like the process is having a rough start.

So reverse QE could stop. The Fed could halt the program. However, it seems unlikely they would pull the plug on the whole program that fast and then what? First they’d have to take the blame for crashing the market, then they would have to tacitly admit they are stuck with mountains of debt that they will have to roll forever.

That means reverse QE is going to have to punch a far bigger hole in the market than we have seen before it hits the headlines. So where is that? 20,000 on the Dow, 18,000?

Well that’s my feeling, which is why I am cashed up.

So take a look at the chart and remember that reverse QE is here and until further notice the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet, which means one thing… The market is going down.

All of a sudden knowing which way the market is going doesn’t seem so asinine.

History says the bull market is ending

My Comments: Paranoia is an elusive thing. Just because you’re paranoid, it doesn’t mean there’s no one out there intent on putting you down. It’s much the same with the stock market. Just because we’ve not had a market correction now for almost nine years, it doesn’t mean there is one just around the corner. Or does it?

I’m writing this in an attempt to justify my position that for the past three years, I’ve been warning clients and whomever will listen that a market correction of significance is ‘just around the corner’. Is it paranoia or is it real?

Personally, I hope it happens soon. That way we can get over it and move on for the next several years. I just want to be able to start the next upturn from a higher point than the depths of the next collapse. How about you?

If you want a way to participate in the inevitable upside and avoid the inevitable downside, reply to this post or send me an email. I have an answer for you.

(This comes from http://stansburychurchouse.com)

If history is any guide, the good times are about to end for the U.S. stock market.

It’s been one of the longest-running bull markets ever…

Over nearly nine years, or 105 months, the S&P 500 has returned 368 percent (including dividends).

That’s the second-longest bull market the U.S. has ever seen… just behind the nearly 9.5 year-long, or 113 months, bull market that started in 1990.

You can see the S&P 500’s past bull markets in the table below… it shows the date they began, their overall return and how long each lasted. On average since 1926, bull markets have lasted for 54 months, and resulted in returns of 160 percent.

After the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, interest rates around the world plummeted. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve cut interest rates from over 5 percent to zero in the course of just over a year.

Coupled with that, we saw an unprecedented surge of money printing as the Fed expanded its balance sheet (by creating money and buying assets) from a little over US$800 billion to over US$4.4 trillion today, along with a wholesale bailout of the banking system.

We also later have seen a “Trump rally” where investors expected President Donald Trump’s tax reform and infrastructure investment election promises to boost the economy.

But the gains can’t go on forever

Take a look at the following chart. It shows when and why each of the bull markets above eventually ended.

For example, in 1990, the U.S. market entered its longest-running bull market on the back of the Internet boom. The S&P 500 soared over 400 percent in nine years. But in March 2000, the market peaked – and went on to fall 49 percent over the next 2.5 years.

In 2002, the market soared back. It went up over 100 percent in five years. Then the global financial crisis hit in 2007, and the S&P 500 fell 57 percent over the next 17 months.

The bull market/bear market cycle keeps repeating… thanks to mean reversion. Markets (along with most other things in life) tend over time to reverse extreme movements and gravitate back to average.

It’s like a rubber band… stretch it and when you let go it returns to its original shape. So after a period of rising prices, securities tend to deliver average or poor returns. Likewise, market prices that decline too far, too fast, tend to rebound. That is mean reversion, and it works over short and long periods.

And mean reversion isn’t the only reason we think the U.S. bull market is winding down…

Overpriced equities

By many measures, U.S. stock market valuations are high.

One of the best ways of measuring market value is to use the cyclically-adjustedprice-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. It’s a longer-term, inflation-adjusted measure that smooths out short-term earnings and cycle volatilities to give a more comprehensive, and accurate, measure of market value.

As the chart below shows, the CAPE for the S&P 500 is now at 33.6 times earnings. That’s higher than any time in history, except for the late ‘90s dotcom bubble. It’s even higher than the stock market bubble of the late 1920s.

High valuations don’t mean that share prices will fall. High valuation levels can always go higher, at least for a bit. Or they could stand still for a while. But mean reversion suggests that at some point, valuations will fall, one way or the other.

And as we showed you recently, the U.S. economy could also be about to see a slowdown in growth – which could also dampen market sentiment and hurt share prices.

It’s not just the U.S.

Now, this is all in the U.S. But we’re seeing a similar situation in global markets.

As we told you in November, the MSCI All Country World Index (which reflects the performance of global stock markets) has seen an unprecedented streak of gains over the past year. And it’s up 8.4 percent since we last wrote about it. As we said earlier, nothing goes up forever.

Plus, if the world’s biggest market (at around half of the global market cap) is in trouble, the rest of the world could be too.

So what should you do?

Look to diversify your portfolio. Regular readers will know that we’re big fans of diversification.

We’ve written before about the importance of not just investing in different sectors and asset classes… but in different markets and countries too. That’s because spreading a portfolio around the world reduces risk. After all, gains in one market can offset losses in another.

And while the gains in some markets are nearing an end, they’re just getting started in markets like India, Bangladesh and Vietnam. These are three of the fastest-growing markets in the world.
So do yourself a favour and diversify your portfolio.

Read the original article on Stansberry Churchouse Research. This is a guest post by Stansberry Churchouse Research, an independent investment research company based in Singapore and Hong Kong that delivers investment insight on Asia and around the world. Click here to sign up to receive the Asia Wealth Investment Daily in your inbox every day, for free. Copyright 2018. Follow Stansberry Churchouse Research on Twitter.

The Perfect Storm (Of The Coming Market Crisis)

My Comments: We do not live in a perfect world. Flaws are all around us. As responsible adults, we always try to make good decisions, and mostly we succeed. Until we don’t.

If you expect to live another 20 or 30 years, the money you’ll need to pay your bills has to come from somewhere. If you’ve already turned off the ‘work for money’ switch and retired, you’re dependent on work credits and saved resources. Maybe you have a pension that sends you money every month. Good for you.

If you are still working, you’re probably setting aside some of what you earn so you can someday retire and get on with the rest of your life without financial stress. At least that should be your plan.

This article from Lance Roberts, a professional money manager, needs to be read and understood. I’m not going to copy everything he says, but I do encourage you to follow the link I’ve put below. Make an effort to understand what he’s telling us. Your financial life may depend on it.

Know also there are ways to shift the risk of loss to a third party. For a fee, you get to enjoy the upside and avoid the downside. If you do live for another 20 – 30 years, where is your money going to come from?

Lance Roberts published this today, November 28th, and it can be found HERE.

Stocks for the Long Run? Not Now

My Comments: There is increasing uncertainty about the stock market. This uncertainty has been growing now for the past 3 plus years. The long term trends described below, coupled with historically low interest rates, suggest the next decade will be disappointing to most of us.

This analysis comes from a Guggenheim Investors report published last September. I haven’t included all the many charts as you will be better served by going directly to the source to see them. https://goo.gl/UL1SSP

If nothing else, you should read the conclusion below…

September 27, 2017 |by Scott Minerd et al, Guggenheim Investments

Introduction

Valuation is a poor timing tool. After all, markets that are overvalued and become even more overvalued are called bull markets. Over a relatively long time horizon, however, valuation has been an excellent predictor of future performance. Our analysis shows that based on current valuations, U.S. equity investors are likely to be disappointed after the next 10 years. While the equity market could continue to perform in the short run, over the long run better relative value will likely be found in fixed income and non-U.S. equities.

Elevated U.S. Equity Valuations Point to Low Future Returns

U.S. stocks are not cheap. Total U.S. stock market capitalization as a percentage of gross domestic product (market cap to GDP) currently stands at 142 percent. This level is near all-time highs, greater than the 2006–2007 peak and surpassed only by the internet bubble period of 1999–2000. This reading is no outlier: It is consistent with other broad measures of U.S. equity valuation, including Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), Tobin’s Q (the ratio of market value to net worth), and the S&P 500 price to sales ratio.

U.S. Equity Valuation Is Approaching Historic Highs

Here is the bad news for equity investors: At current levels of market cap to GDP, estimated annualized total returns over the next 10 years look dismal at just 0.9 percent (before inflation), based on previous trends. Intuitively this makes sense: Looking back at the history of the time series, it is clear that an excellent entry point into the equity market for a long-term investor would have been a period like the mid-1980s, or in the latter stages of the financial crisis in 2009. Conversely, 1968, 2000, and 2007 would have been good times to get out.

Market Cap to GDP Has Been a Strong Predictor of Future Equity Returns

Market cap to GDP is a useful metric because it has proven to be an accurate predictor of future equity returns. As the chart below shows, market cap to GDP has historically been highly negatively correlated with subsequent S&P 500 total returns, particularly over longer horizons where valuation mean reversion becomes a significant factor. Over 10 years, the correlation is -90 percent.

Market Cap to GDP Has Been a Good Predictor of Equity Returns 10 Years Out

It would be easy to assume that the rise in stock valuations is justified by low rates. A similar argument is made by proponents of the Fed model, which compares the earnings yield of equities to the 10-year Treasury yield as a measure of relative value. While there is some relationship between interest rates and valuation as measured by market cap to GDP, low rates do not explain why equities are so rich. At the current range of interest rates (2–3 percent), we have seen market cap to GDP anywhere from 47 percent to current levels of 142 percent—hardly a convincing relationship. In short, interest rates tell us little about where market cap to GDP, or other valuation metrics, “should” be.

Fixed Income Offers Better Relative Value

For a measure of relative value, we compared expected returns on equities over 10-year time horizons (as implied by the relationship with market cap to GDP) to the expected return on 10-year Treasurys—assuming that the return is equal to the prevailing yield to maturity. Typically, equities would have the higher expected returns than government bonds due to the higher risk premium, but in periods when equity valuations have become too rich, future returns on U.S. stocks have fallen below 10-year Treasury yields. Not surprisingly, past periods where this signal has occurred include the late 1990s internet bubble and 2006–2007.

The chart below demonstrates that if equities over the next 10 years are likely to return just 0.9 percent, 10-year Treasury notes held to maturity—currently yielding about 2.2 percent—start to seem like a viable alternative. The fact that S&P 500 returns over the past 10 years have not been as low as the model predicted can at least be partially explained by extraordinary monetary policy, which may have helped to pull returns forward, but in doing so dragged down future returns.

Conclusion

Based on the historical relationship between market cap to GDP ratios and subsequent 10-year returns, today’s market valuation suggests that the annual return on a broad U.S. equity portfolio over the next 10 years is likely to be very disappointing. As such, investors may want to seek better opportunities elsewhere. Equity valuations are less stretched in other developed and emerging markets, which may present more upside potential.

In fixed income, low yields should not deter investors, as our analysis indicates that U.S. Treasurys should outperform equities over the next decade. But as we explained in The Core Conundrum, low Treasury yields should steer investors away from passively allocating to an aggregate index that overwhelmingly favors low-yielding government-related debt. In particular, sectors not represented in the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Index, including highly rated commercial asset-backed securities and collateralized loan obligations, can offer comparable (or higher) yields with less duration risk than similarly rated corporate bonds. We believe active fixed-income management that focuses on the best risk-adjusted opportunities—whether in or out of the benchmark—offers the best solution to meeting investors’ objectives in a low-return world.

A Stock Market Crash In 2018?

My Comments: Last Monday, I posted comments from three people who said with conviction there was no reason to expect a market correction any time soon.

Today I have someone with no discernable name who says, also with conviction, that we’ll have one next year.

Here’s my take on this: if you are 60 years old or more, prepare for a correction. If you are less than 60 years of age, ignore all this, put your money to work and don’t worry about it.

Now, do you feel better?

November 7, 2017 from GoldSilverWorlds.com

The U.S. stock market is in amazing shape. Every day new all-time highs are set. This must be bullish, and investors should go all-in, right? Well, not that fast, at least not in our opinion. We see many signs that this rally is getting overextended, from an historical perspective. While we clearly said a year ago that we were bullish for this year, we did not see any stock market crash coming (a year ago). Right now, we are now on record with a forecast of a stock market crash in 2018, and it could take place as early as the first weeks / months of 2018.

So far, in all openness and transparency, our warning signals for a mini-stock market crash in November were invalidated. We were horribly wrong in terms of timing. However, we still believe there is a huge risk brewing for a mini-crash. The stronger the current rally, the stronger the fallback.

Yes, we do expect a strong mini-crash in the stock market in 2018, starting early 2018. Central banks will likely step in to avoid a similar chaos as in 2008/2009, so we don’t forecast the end of the financial system.

We do, however, believe a very stiff correction will take place, which potentially could bring a buying opportunity (to be confirmed at that point in time based on intermarket dynamics). More likely, however, we believe that money will rotate out of U.S. stocks into emerging markets. That is why we are very bullish emerging markets in 2018.

The first warning signs of a stock market crash

We published the following warning signs starting in August:
• Is Volatility Making A Higher Low Here?
• Volatility On The Rise As Expected. What’s Next For Stocks?
• Ignore This Series Of Volatility Warning Signs At Your Own Peril
• Volatility Hit Historic Lows This Week. Maximum Complacency Is Bearish!

But the number of concerning indicators is accumulating now. Yes, it may sound as foolish as it can be that right during a strong bull market rally InvestingHaven’s research team talks about concerning indicators. But let’s first deep-dive before you come to a conclusion.

The Dow Jones Industrials chart is one of those concerning charts. The area indicated with “0” shows that the index has risen with more than 30% in 12 months without any meaningful correction. This rally may be amazing, but it is reaching a level never seen before in the past 12 years (including the 2007 rally and major top). All other instances of a 30% rise in 12 months are indicated on this chart (from 1 till 5):
• The 2013 rally (“5”) was as powerful as the current one, but resulted in a mini-crash just 3 months later.
• All other rallies (“1” till “4”) resulted in a strong correction or mini-crash within or right after the 12-month rally.

The current U.S. stock market sentiment shows extreme greed, according to the CNN Money fear & greed index.

In the past 3 years, the Fear & Greed index reached similar levels of bullishness only twice. This bull run is overextended on the short-term time frame for sure.

The stock market breadth, an indicator of strength of market internals, is suggesting that this rally is driven by a minority of stocks. As the broad indexes move higher, there are fewer stocks participating in the rally. Not a good sign.

4 charts suggesting a stock market crash in 2018 based on historical data

Let’s put the current stock bull market in historical context. As the charts speak for themselves, we believe they suggest a stock market crash is brewing, and it could start as early as the first days or weeks of 2018.
The first chart shows the strongest bull markets in the last 80 years. Visibly, the current bull market, which started in 2009, is now close to being the strongest ever. The current strong rally, which comes after an 8-year bull run, is a concerning factor, according to us.

Note from TK: To see these four charts and read the short accompanying text, GO HERE:

How this Bull Market Will End

My Comments: Once again, our assumptions about the future of the current bull market are challenged. I want these writers to be right, and that too is a challenge for me. I share it with you here in hopes it gives you a better idea about what to do with your money.

By Krishna Memani, Brian Levitt & Drew Thornton | August 15, 2017

This secular bull market—the least loved in memory—is now more than 100 months old, and up by 265% from its bottom on March 9, 2009. It is also the second longest bull market on record (after the 1990s’ dot-com boom) and fourth largest in terms of market advance.

For some investors, the sheer age of this cycle is enough to cause consternation. Yet there is nothing magical about the passage of time. As we have said time and again, bull markets do not die of old age. Like people, bull markets ultimately die when the system can no longer fight off maladies. In order for the cycle to end there needs to be a catalyst—either a major policy mistake or a significant economic disruption in one of the world’s major economies. In our view, neither appears to be in the offing:

• Global growth is sufficiently modest. The “accidental” synchronized global expansion (so-called accidental because it was more of a coincidence than a coordinated effort by global policymakers) is already fading, but slowing growth in the United States and China does not foretell a crisis.

• The United States, nine years into this market cycle, has not exhibited the excesses that are indicative of typical economic downturns.

• For its part, China’s high leverage poses a threat to its financial stability, but government actions are likely to be gradual to ensure a phased pace of deleveraging while maintaining growth stability.

• We believe that low inflation globally will provide cover for policymakers to be more accommodative than many expect.

We are optimistic that this cycle will ultimately be the longest on record, though we do not believe our view is Pollyannaish. We will continue looking out for telltale signs indicating the end of the current cycle, even as we believe that none of them are forthcoming:

1. U.S. and/or European inflation increases more rapidly: If inflation picks up meaningfully in the developed world and tighter policy commences, then the cycle will likely be curtailed.

2. High-yield credit spreads widen: The bond market is usually a good indicator of the end of a cycle. Cycles end with the yield curve inverting and high-yield credit spreads blowing out. An equity market sell-off typically follows soon thereafter.

3. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury rate falls and the yield curve flattens: The 10-Year Treasury rate will reflect the real growth and inflation expectations of bond market participants. A flattening yield curve driven by the decline of long-term rates would be an ominous sign for the U.S. and global economy.

4. The U.S. dollar strengthens versus emerging market currencies: A flight of capital from emerging markets to the United States would slow growth among the former—which are major drivers of economic activity—and potentially cause another earnings recession for U.S. multinational companies.

Note: There is a white paper published by Oppenheimer Funds with 18 charts in support of the authors argument that the current bull market will not end soon. You can find it HERE.