This Is Not How A Bear Market Starts

My Comments: Today is Memorial Day, and the markets are closed in this country. It’s a day for us to instead remember those of us who gave their lives that we might continue with ours. Pray that fewer lives will be given in the years to come.

The following comes from someone whose name I do not know. But if you can wade through the math and graphics, you may find that the world is not about to end. At least financially.

Here’s how the author describes himself: “I have a degree in Math and Science from the University of Toronto, as well as a degree in education, also from U of T. I have traded private equity for 38 years and have developed a proprietary Price Modelling System which has provided me with consistent profitable trading success. In partnership with my computer scientist son, Aidan Gomez, we have automated this model using neural networks, and offer a Trade Alert service that lets subscribers replicate the trades we are involved in.”.

To see the charts, you’ll want to visit the source article HERE.

May 22, 2017 | ANG Traders

Summary
There has been much digital ink spilled trying to convince us that the bull market is on its last legs.

We present fundamental and technical reasons to support the idea of an ongoing bull market.

Black swans aside, this is not how bear markets start.

There has been, and continues to be, an inordinate amount of digital ink spilled promulgating the imminent demise of the bull market. Most of the arguments for this, center around the near-historic levels of certain metrics, such as PE ratios and S&P averages, but they ignore the factors that truly coincide with the launch of bear markets. In this piece, we will attempt to elucidate several of the metrics that we have correlated with bear or bull markets, and hopefully, show that the bull market is alive and well.

Rate Differential
When the 10-y minus the 2-y Treasury rate inverts, it has a way of marking the end of bull markets. When this differential turns negative, in conjunction with low unemployment, investors should look for an exit. Today, the unemployment rate is low, but not as low as in 2000 or 2007, and the 10-y minus 2-y rate is still a healthy +1%. It will take several sizable Fed rate hikes before the rate differential inverts (chart below). This does not look like the start of a bear market.

Fed Funds Rate

It is obvious that when the Fed raises rates, the bull market dies, but often when it comes to the market, what is obvious, is obviously wrong. In fact, three of the last four bull markets occurred while the Fed raised rates – the latest bull market being the exception (chart below). The Fed has lots of room to raise into a growing business cycle. Bear markets do not start when low rates are being raised.

Industrial Production
Except for a five-month period in 2002, a rising industrial production has coincided with a rising SPX. The chart below demonstrates this strong positive correlation. Bear markets do not start with rising industrial production.

GAAP Earnings

The Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings enjoy a positive correlation with the S&P 500. The GAAP earnings started rising two quarters ago, and the current quarter is shaping up to be positive also. Bear markets do not start with rising GAAP earnings.

Technical Indicators
The 8-month moving average remains above the 12-month moving average, the MACD is rising, the ADX is displaying a bullish pattern, and the RSI and stochastic are elevated, but they can remain elevated for long periods of time (chart below). This is not how bear markets start.

Investor Sentiment
Bull markets climb the proverbial “wall of worry.” There is a lot of geopolitical and intramural politics to worry about, and which are feeding the bull market. Bear markets do not start when there is fear around. They start when investors are confident and throw caution to the wind. The AAII investor sentiment indicator stands at a fearful 24% bullish sentiment, and 34% bearish sentiment (red and blue arrows respectively on the chart below). Bear markets start when bullish sentiment is over 50%, and bearish sentiment is under 30% (red and blue oval on the chart below). This is not how bear markets start.

In conclusion, the evidence presented paints a picture of a bull market that is still fearful and healthy. That is not to say that a black-swan won’t fall out of the sky and ruin the picnic, but judging from what we can and do know, a bear market is not imminent.

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