Opinion: This Market Bubble is About to Burst

bear-market-bearMy Comments: Yesterday, I decided it was time to think about moving my clients out of cash and back into the markets. At least with some of their money. Now, once again, I’m not so sure.

If you are retired, or about to be retired, and have the ability to control the investments made inside your retirement accounts, it’s a time to be very cautious. Missing a little upside to protect yourself against a serious downside is, I think, a smart move.

Published: Feb 8, 2017 | Mark D. Cook | Moneywatch

The U.S. stock market at this level reflects a combination of great demand, great complacency, and great greed. Stocks are clearly in a bubble, and like all bubbles, this one is about to burst.

What do previous financial bubbles have in common with this one? There are many similarities, but one in particular is the real estate bubble of the mid-2000s that led to the 2008 global financial crisis. Then, extensive real estate buying overwhelmed supply. People were borrowing even more than 100% of the cost of the real estate, using creative means of financing never seen before in U. S. credit markets.

But debt is debt, which means it is a liability that someone is responsible to repay. That obligation was totally absent in the minds of borrowers and lenders alike — until demand dried up and reality hit.

How is this similar to the market now? The Federal Reserve has created an environment of low- to almost non-existent returns on bank saving accounts, and in the process it ruptured the savings mentality that had been a foundation of American society. People once could live within their means and make a habit of saving some of their income for retirement. They expected banks to pay a rate of interest to savers that was fair and consistent.

When this was no longer the case, people with savings chased returns in riskier areas including stocks, as well as not saving as much. Indeed, the saving generation has been forced into stocks, in which they do not have deep-seated faith. They will take the first opportunity to return to their savings ways again.

Three factors substantiate the view that this market is in a bubble. Each factor warns that stocks are in extremely overbought territory.

The first factor is the CCT indicator. This indicator is a proprietary internal measurement of the general volume of the New York Stock Exchange. The measurements take into account the institutional participation as a ratio of the overall volume. Also measured is the duration of heavy block buying in rallies.

The sum total of all the measurements now shows the lowest bullish energy ever — even lower than in 2008, just before the market crash.

The second factor is the sluggish VIX  (S&P Volatility Index) and the persistence of readings just above 10. These overbought readings indicate a pressure to return to higher levels, thus requiring downside volatility to neutralize the pressure. The longer this persists, the greater the downside pressure.

The third factor is a short-term daily indicator called the 1.5% one-day decline, which signals a pending environment change in chart patterns. The U.S. market has now gone three months without a 1.5% one-day decline. This is the longest period in the record-keeping history of this indicator — and a sign of imminent danger. Bubbles burst.

Advertisements