It illustrates why those of us who profess to be financial advisors are more in the dark than you are. Here we are talking about a looming market correction, one that will happen, and the longer it takes to start the more violent it is likely to be. And here I am this morning, coming to you with good news about the economy. Seems totally weird, doesn’t it?
What has to be remembered is that the markets are always forward looking. I want to invest my money before it goes up, if at all possible. If I think it’s going to crater, I’m taking my money out. At least that’s the plan, unless you use some of the approaches favored by us at Florida Wealth Advisors, LLC.
What this headline tells me is that when the correction happens, it will be relatively short term and though perhaps dramatic, it will not be systemic.
Jul. 31, 2014 / APAC Investment News
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis is reporting 4 percent growth in the second quarter, a strong rebound from the first quarter.
• Consumer spending in both durable and non-durable goods is up. Both exports and imports also rose, along with most other indicators.
• This economic growth should provide some upward pressure for markets, at least in the short term.
The United States has struggled to fully recover from the 2008 Financial Crisis. While stock markets have rebounded, unemployment has remained high and economic growth has been tepid. New data points to the U.S. economy growing a solid 4 percent in the second quarter, however, propelled by an increase in consumer spending. This should help stabilize markets and perhaps even push them higher.
With consumer spending accounting for roughly 2/3rds of America’s economy, any increase in consumer spending should come as a relief for those concerned of yet another slowdown. Still, stock markets hovered in place following the release of the data on Wednesday, likely over concerns about the Fed’s next move with interest rates and the continued wind down of its asset buying program.
Consumer Spending On The Rise
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis consumer spending increased a solid 2.5 percent in the second quarter, up from 1.2 percent in the first quarter. Durable goods, which includes automobiles, appliances, and other similar goods, increased by an astounding 14 percent, compared with an increase of just 3.2 percent in the first quarter. Non-durable goods, which includes food and clothing, increased by 2.5 percent. The BEA presents its numbers in seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Automobiles have been performing particularly well as of late, even while General Motors is still feeling the fallout from a major scandal and many automakers are suffering a rash of recalls. There were some fears of a major slowdown following the economic contraction in the first quarter, but for now it appears that the feared slow down hasn’t materialized.
Ford did suffer a decline in sales in June, falling some 5.8 percent YOY. While this may not seem like good news, the drop was not as bad as expected. Meanwhile, General Motors sales rose 1 percent even in spite of the bad publicity from the ignition scandal, and Chrysler posted a solid 9.2 gain.
Growth Being Driven By Other Factors
Besides consumer spending, other areas of the economy have also performed well. Exports rose by 9.5 percent, following a sharp decline of 9.2 percent in the first quarter. This suggests that the global economy may also be growing. Imports also rose 11.7 percent, compared with an increase of only 2.2 percent in the first quarter.
Investment in equipment rose 7 percent, while investments in non-residential structures rose by 5.3 percent.
Interestingly, federal government consumption actually decreased by .8 percent, suggesting that the rise in spending is being driven by private businesses and consumers. This should come as a welcome sign given the government’s high debt burden. Simply put, the American government likely couldn’t afford to drive up consumption even if it wanted to.
Strong Economic Growth Should Re-enforce Markets
For now, strong economic growth should keep markets buoyant even with many factors exerting downward pressures. Sanctions on Russia, tensions in the South China Seas, political infighting in Congress, the possible fallout of the Fed curtailment of its asset buying program, and numerous other factors have created jitters. Strong economic growth can counteract these downward pressures, at the very least.
Meanwhile, as stock indexes have surged to all time highs, there have been some concerns that a bubble may be building. While stock markets have been performing well, the economy in general seemed to be suffering from sluggish growth, suggesting that something besides actual economic performance has been driving stock prices upwards. Now, however, economic growth finally appears to be in line with the rising stock market indexes.
So long as the economy continues to grow, markets should remain stable. Of course, the economy itself could quickly swing back into contraction. Government debt levels remain high, profits can evaporate over night, and consumer sentiments can change quickly.
Further, as the economy continues to grow, the Fed will almost certainly continue to cut back its stimulus measures, and eventually even raise interest rates. This, in turn, could slow economic growth. Meanwhile, stagnant wages, continued high unemployment, high debt levels, and other factors could eventually pose a threat.