My Comment: I first met Bob Doll some 25 plus years ago when he was a regional representative for what I recall as Oppenheimer Funds. He made intelligent presentations and clearly had his act together.

Over the years he has appeared in various high profile positions within the industry and has always been pretty close to the mark. What he says here makes sense and encourages me to make sure my clients are appropriately exposed to the stock market as we wait and watch for history. Unfortunately, many people will wait until he’s proven right, by which time it will be appropriate to sell and get back into cash.

Please notice he says nothing about whether interest rates will rise or stay the same.

January 8, 2013 • Karen DeMasters

U.S. stocks will hit an all-time high in 2013 despite a “muddled” economic recovery, according to Robert C. Doll of Nuveen Investments.

Robert C. Doll, chief equity strategist and senior portfolio manager for Nuveen Asset Management, the $117 billion multi-asset affiliate of Nuveen Investments based Chicago, said he is cautiously optimistic about the year ahead.

“In the broadest terms, 2013 will see the United States experience a more muddle-through economy and a grind-higher equity market,” Doll said. “Our somewhat constructive outlook is not driven by expectations for a strong acceleration in global growth, but rather a modest improvement leading to increased business spending, which will make the recovery broader and more sustainable than has been the case since the Great Recession ended.”

For most countries in Europe, there will be fewer recessionary reports in the second half of the year, he said.

Domestically, Doll said the double-digit percentages in dividend growth will continue, despite higher taxes on dividends.

“In many cases, cash and cash flow are so strong that increased hiring and reinvestment by corporations could happen along with increased dividend payouts,” he predicted.

“We believe we will witness an increase in manufacturing jobs and GDP as a percentage of total jobs and GDP, admittedly from a low base,” Doll said. “Realization of this prediction in 2013 and beyond should have a positive impact on trade, capital expenditures, jobs and inflation.”

Doll further predicts U.S. stocks will record a new all-time high for the fifth year in a row, emerging market equities will outperform developed market equities and U.S. multinationals will outperform domestically focused companies.

Doll made 10 predictions for 2013:
• The U.S. economy continues to muddle through with nominal growth below 5% for the seventh year in a row.
• Europe begins to exit recession by the end of year as the ECB eases and financial stresses lessen.
• The U.S. yield curve steepens as financial risks recede and deflationary threats lessen.
• U.S. stocks record a new all-time high as stocks advance for the fifth year in a row.
• Emerging market equities outperform developed market equities.
• After two years of underperformance, U.S. multinationals outperform domestically focused companies.
• Large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks and cyclical companies outperform defensive companies.
• Dividends increase at a double-digit rate as payout ratios rise.
• A nascent U.S. manufacturing renaissance continues, powered by cheap natural gas.
• The U.S. government passes a $2–3 trillion 10-year budget deal.