RIP Obama’s Stimulus: Funeral for a Policy Success

My Comments: OK, maybe “funeral” is too strong but the bloom is clearly off the lily. I’ve been registered as a Democrat since I was in college. This was when you had to be if you wanted to vote in the primaries. The only people running were Democrats. I’ve called myself an economist since my …

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The Astounding Power of “Economic Elites”

My Comments: I confess to having been naive when it comes to some people having a greater influence on political outcomes than others. But now I've read about this report, and what it claims, and my naivete is now boundless. Some friends and family stopped voting long ago. They have accepted that their votes are …

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Forecasts of US Fiscal Armageddon Are Wrong

My Comments: Over the years I’ve had people wonder why I’m an optimist. They’ve decided I’m simply blinded by whatever it is that causes me to lean to the left instead of the right. To their mind, the world, and in particular America, is going to hell in a handbasket. I believe that for centuries, …

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Global Markets: At A Turning Point?

My Comments: This article was published two months ago, so it is interesting to see how the ideas expressed were validated or not over February and March. At the time, the focus was a just ended and very dismal January. Everyone was asking me about the rest of the year. And I didn’t have a …

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A Deal Over Ukraine is Ugly But Unavoidable

My Comments: Now that the University of Florida's march to the national title game in basketball is behind us,  (Congratulations, guys, for giving us several months of enduring pleasure as we watched you grow and succeed!) it's time to come back to earth and consider how life is likely to play out on other fronts. …

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What’s Happening In China These Days?

My Comments: China is today the 2nd largest and arguably the 2nd strongest economy in the world. It differs from us in a material way in that it has few of the myriad infrastructure elements of our economy, which have evolved over the past 235 years. In China, it’s very much a work in progress. …

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Health Care Costs: Still Going Up

My Comments: Many, if not most of us, are sick and tired of the arguments about ObamaCare, the nickname for the PPACA, passed by Congress and essentially OK’d by the Supreme Court. Between you and me it's here to stay, and yet needs a lot of adjustments to make it realistic and meaningful over time. …

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Are We Looking At A Bond Bubble?

My Comments: There are just as many ways to lose money with bonds as there are with stocks. The risk is different; what happens to interest rates in the future vs corporate earnings and their relative size. That’s an oversimplification but you get the idea. The chart above shows interest rates from 1790 – 2012. …

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Energy Price Spread: Natural Gas Vs. Crude Oil In The U.S.

My Comments: Followers of this blog may remember my frequent mention of Thomas P.M. Barnett, a prolific writer and thought leader on global economics and political forces. Years ago he said that within a couple of decades, the US would become a net exporter of energy. He asserted this transformation would re-write a lot of …

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It Is Informed Optimism To Wait For The Rain

My Comments: Yes, the title above is a little odd, but the word "optimism" caused me to stop and read. By every contemporary, standard definition, I am a “financial advisor”. That term is restricted, or should be, to those of us providing financial advice to clients that conforms to a fiduciary standard. Simply put, we …

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