My Comments: It’s my belief that the current administration, in their efforts to Make America Great Again, are doing it wrong. From efforts to remake NAFTA, not participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, misguided tariff policies, efforts to limit immigration as existing Americans are having fewer children, tax laws that serve to benefit the already rich as opposed to the masses that consume goods and services, all of these are counter-productive.
Meanwhile China and India are becoming more educated, have vast numbers of people who are finding themselves with more money, and you have the making of Make America Less Again.
And most of us sit in our easy chairs thinking all is good in the world. It’s not.
by Will Martin on January 10, 2019
The United States of America could lose its position as the world’s biggest economy as soon as next year — and once that happens, it is unlikely to regain the top spot as developing Asian economies power ahead.
According to research released this week by Standard Chartered Bank, China is likely to become the world’s biggest economy at some point in 2020, when measured by a combination of purchasing-power-parity exchange rates and nominal gross domestic product.
Using PPP alone, China is already considered the world’s largest economy, but on a nominal basis the US remains in the lead.
Not only is China likely to overtake the US in 2020, but by 2030 it will be joined by India, Standard Chartered said in its report, with annual GDP growth set to accelerate from about 6% now to almost 8% in the coming decade.
“India will likely be the main mover, with its trend growth accelerating to 7.8% by the 2020s partly due to ongoing reforms, including the introduction of a national goods and services tax (GST) and the Indian Bankruptcy Code,” Standard Chartered said.
India’s rise would also reflect Asia’s becoming the dominant economic region of the planet as the size of its output starts to match the size of its population.
“Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies,” a team of economists from the bank wrote in a note to clients.
By 2030, the bank said, Asian GDP will account for roughly 35% of global GDP, up from 28% last year and 20% in 2010. This would be equivalent to the combined output of the eurozone and the US.
By 2030, six of the 10 largest economies could be in Asia, as the chart below illustrates: