My Comments: You may not like the mandate, but it’s probably in your best economic interest to accept it.

By EDUARDO PORTER Published: June 19, 2012

Within the next few days, the Supreme Court may strike down the provision in the Affordable Care Act requiring every American to buy health insurance. Odds that the justices will reject this measure, the so-called individual mandate, are approaching 80 percent on Intrade, a market where investors can bet on the outcome of pretty much everything.

What’s harder to figure out is what will then happen to health insurance. Advocates of health care reform argue that eliminating the mandate could gut the president’s plan. Most health economists would probably agree.

But this consensus is based on a fairly optimistic view that the individual mandate and accompanying fines for failing to comply will be highly effective at persuading Americans to buy health insurance that they would otherwise forgo. On that score, the mandate might matter less than its advocates believe.

Ultimately, the answer will depend on Americans’ behavior. Specifically, how far will we go for a free lunch?

The case for the individual mandate rests on the belief — shared by most economists — that most people go through life seeking the best possible deal, always looking to get the most out of any given situation.

The health care act requires insurers to charge everybody the same rates regardless of their health status. Healthy Americans could save money by dropping their insurance until they were sick.

Think of a world in which people bought car insurance only when their car was lying crumpled in a ditch after an accident and you’ll understand why an insurance market like this would implode.