The Trump Rally Is Toast

First, this appeared nine days ago. It’s old news.

Second, not all old new is bad news. If it influences how you think about your investments today and next week, that’s a good thing.

Because I firmly believe we’re going to see a lot more bad news before we see any sustained good news. There’ll be days when we’re tempted to jump in and buy something, but we’re not there yet. I think.

By Erik Conley \ 18 MAR 2020 \


  • At its peak the Trump market was up 49%.
  • Today it’s up 5.6%.
  • Trumpists are not going to like this post.

I’m guessing that about half of those who read this post are Trumpists, and half are Obamaists. That’s o.k. with me. This is a factual comparison of the Trump stock market vs. the Obama stock market on the identical time scale – 3.35 years into their presidency.

Before you begin commenting, be aware that I voted for Trump three times in 2016. Once in Wisconsin, once in Michigan, and once in Pennsylvania. The RNC provided bus transportation and fake voter I.D to make this possible.

(BTW, I also voted for Obama 3 times, using the identities of dead people in Chicago.) But I digress.

Trump vs. Obama stock markets, 3 years in.

After 1,225 days at the controls, Obama is clearly in the lead as far as the stock market is concerned. Trump was getting close to catching up with Obama until the wheels came off on February 20th.

The gap in performance is wide. The Obama market was up by 75% while the Trump market, on the same time frame, is up just 5%. What a difference a month makes.

Drilling down into the numbers.

The blue and red lines on the above chart are self-explanatory. So, let’s drill down into the numbers in the table below the chart.

  • Starting from left to right, the number of days in office are identical – 1,225.
  • The % gain is the cumulative, price-only change since each man was sworn into office. On this metric the score is 75% to 5% in favor of Obama.
  • CAGR is the compound annual growth rate of the market return. On this metric the score is 17.1% to 1.6% in favor of Obama.
  • Best day is a close call. Obama edges out Trump on this metric.
  • Worst day isn’t very close. Trump’s worst day was just this past Monday.
  • Max DD (maximum decline from peak to trough) is a virtual tie in my book.

Am I picking on Trump when he’s down?

Of course not. If he manages to pull us out of a health and financial crisis, and the stock market recovers to make a new high, I’ll be the first one to sing his praises. But it’s going to be a tough slog ahead.

One thought on “The Trump Rally Is Toast

  1. Tony B

    Analysis like this is so pointless….as if the market acts concurrently, or in a vacuum. Basically, the market began its crash in earnest in the fall of 2008…and you can time it to the WEEK Obama took the lead in the polls for good. You can look it up.
    Recall….Obama was talking all kinds of craziness: carbon taxes, government takeover of healthcare, union card check, etc. His inevitable election, on top of the sub prime crisis, drained the oil out of the financial markets. Once the FASB removed their mark to market rules, the market bottomed. You can look it up.
    Obama, for 8 years, held the beachball of the economy under water; the ONLY reason he was able to eek out a sickly percent or two of GDP growth was due to the cratering of energy prices on his watch, thanks to the incredible shale revolution…..something he fought, or pretended to.
    With his Solyndras, Chrysler bondholders, terrible Obamacare, etc….we entered in his words, “a new normal”. But the aforementioned underwater beach ball was released in November 2016.
    So this guy is saying Trump market hasn’t been as good as Obama’s. Talk about cherry picking data.
    Buddy….we are in the midst of a GLOBAL PANDEMIC. The market is a leading indicator….and the selloff was faster and more furious than any in history…meaning it took the market by surprise.
    I’m not seeing we’ve seen THE bottom…..we’ll grind and retest, but at this point, all the surprises are to the upside. Thank GOD Trump is in office, he’s handling it MASTERFULLY, despite what the media says….the hydroxycloro/zpack treatment WORKS…stay healthy, we’ll get through this, and those of you in a properly allocated diversified portfolio will wonder what the fuss was about, sooner rather than later. If history is any guide….LOOK at the testing centers popping up and the free market stepping up. We are so blessed to live in this country!


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