My Comments: I’m really conflicted about what to tell my clients about their investments. On one hand I’m persuaded that a severe correction is coming soon, and on the other, there is something going on that suggests otherwise. Damn, I wish I had a crystal ball. Stephanie Flanders | July 26, 2016 | The Financial …
Category: Economy & Markets
The Stock Market Is About To Have A ‘Final Melt Up’
My Comments: Anyone who suggests they know what is likely to happen to the markets in the coming days is probably just hoping they will be right. And that includes me. A high percentage of significant market downturns have happened in August and September. This article suggests there is an event planned for the end …
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Howard Johnson’s Restaurants – Only 1 left
My Comments: In my youth, Howard Johnson was the standard when it came to motels and places to eat when traveling in the US. They were everywhere. But times change, ideas reach their expiration date, and the business model falters unless someone brings a new vision to the table. Sometimes it's impossible to remain relevant …
A New Policy Orthodoxy Is Emerging
My Comments: The more things change, the more they stay the same. Or is it the other way around? If your future financial wellbeing depends on guarantees and positive market performance, the more you need to pay attention to these trends. Or at least interact with professionals who do follow and understand them. This is …
The Return of American Exceptionalism
My Comments: We live in a biased world and are likely to remain in a biased world. I find it helpful to read ideas expressed by people who live outside the US and have a different bias filter. This is one of them. By Edward Luce, August 14, 2016 Until recently most of the world …
The Real Economy Trumps Republican ‘Dark Ages’
My Comments: If I’m guilty of a ‘liberal media bias”, so be it. As an economist and financial professional for the past 40 years, I think I know how to read the tea leaves of global economic reality. They say our economy is relatively solid. Unemployment is low and growing. Corporate earnings are OK, if …
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This Stock Market Rally Is Going To Fall Apart
My Comments: Another brick in the pile that says we’re headed for a market correction. A major clue is called the price to earnings ratio or P/E. It’s a readily available metric that helps understand relative valuations. The Shiller CAPE ratio is today recognized as the better measurement of market valuations. Currently, it is almost …
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Undeniable Evidence That The Real Economy Is Already In Recession Mode
My Comments: I have clients positioned in investments that gained in excess of 40% in 2008 and 2009. But they are upset because they lost money last year. Knowing that the bull market was long in the tooth, I made the argument that a defensive posture would bode well for their money and their future …
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Don’t Expect To Make Any Money In The Market For The Next 7 Years
My Comments: I have no idea whether this will prove to be true or not. But it sure enters my thinking whenever I talk about money with clients and how they are going to pay their future bills. And how I'm going to pay my bills. John Mauldin, Economics, Jul. 28, 2016 The next recession …
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The Only Way To Save the EU Is For The UK To Leave It
My Comments: Forget the UK and Europe. There’s a message here that applies to us in the United States and the anger among so many that gives rise to a choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It echoes the comments I’ve made here for years that “It’s economics, stupid!”. A primary driver of deteriorating …
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Helping Define Your Financial Future 