Tag Archives: investment advice

4 Reasons Why Not To Go Long The S&P

global investingMy Comments: Some of my responsibility as an investment advisor is to provide warning if I think there are pending changes in market direction. But since I have no idea what I may eat for lunch today, telling folks about the next crash will happen is pure speculation. But…

I compensate for this inability by having as much of their money as possible in accounts that have historically moved away from the markets and into cash and short positions when the signals are strong that a downturn is happening.

I’ve included only one chart from the article here. To the extent you want to see the rest, this link should take you to my source article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2466765-4-reasons-why-not-to-go-long-the-s-and-p

Jack Foley, Sep. 3, 2014 2:43

Summary
• Many large cap stocks are not making new highs like the SPY. This is a worrying sign.
• Interest rates have to rise in the future which will put downward pressure on the stock market. Veteran trader Steve Jakobsen believes we could drop 30% from here.
• Oil seems to have bottomed and oil has the potential to make the whole commodity sector rally along with it.

The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) has broken through the physiological number of 2000, and commentators and speculators alike are predicting higher highs from here. I am ultra short on this market but it is becoming increasingly hard to predict when this market will roll over in earnest. Investors who are short the market are really hurting right now, and it takes a brave investor to stay short in this environment. Nevertheless, the risk is all to the downside so an investor must stay extremely nimble if profits are to be made. Let’s explain why.

First of all, even though the market is making new highs, there are many large cap stocks that are not participating in this move. Look at the General Electric Company (NYSE:GE) to see how far it is below its all-time highs.
14-9-16 General ElectricAlso because we have extremely low interest rates, corporate earnings are inflated. Bonds and stocks have rallied hard for the last few years as these markets have been the benefactors of the US’s low interest rate environment.

Nevertheless, interest rates one day will have to rise. When they do, investors will start shifting their money back into fixed term savings accounts. Bonds trade inversely to interest rates so when rates rise, bonds will come under pressure. The problem with low interest rate environments is that they can create asset bubbles. I believe we have one forming in stocks, in bonds and in certain real estate markets globally. In London, for example, property prices may rise by 30% this year which is unprecedented in a struggling global economy we have nowadays.

Veteran trader Steve Jakobsen believes that we could see a 30% drop in the S&P 500 from these levels. Jakobsen believes that equities is the only asset class that hasn’t been really affected from this ongoing global financial crisis.

Therefore, he believes one day the S&P 500 will revert to the mean which could be as much as 30% lower than where we are now.

Finally, I like the movement oil is making at the moment and I think we have finally found a bottom. Tthe spot price of light crude oil has gone from $108 in June to a rising $95 at the moment. The bottom seems to be in and if oil can rally from here, I believe it will put pressure on the stock market as funds will start to leak into the commodity markets. Oil has the potential to take the whole commodity complex with it when it’s in bull mode, so depressed agricultural commodities such as Corn and Sugar should also benefit. As you can see from the chart below, commodities have struggled as a whole in the last few years as equities have rallied hard.

Yes, equities and oil can rally together and have done so up to January 2013 since 2008 (practically everything rallied once the Fed ran their printing presses) but since January 2013 oil has not participated in the move. Once the Federal Reserve eventually ends all stimulus programs (either voluntarily or by demand), I have no doubt capital will start leaking into the commodity markets and oil. Also if geopolitical tensions in Iraq and the Ukraine escalate, oil will spike and the world stock markets will decline sharply.

To sum up, there are enough warning signals to warrant not being long here in the US stock market. If you still think the rally is not finished, I would advise scaling down your position size.

Being a Stock-Market Bull Just Got a Lot Harder

question-markMy Comments: For over a year now, I’ve been warning my clients that a reversal is coming in the stock market. As a result, we’ve slowly moved into investments that have reacted positively and made money during downturns. Only it hasn’t happened yet.

Consequently, some of them are frustrated and angry with me because while the market has grown considerably in the last eighteen months, their accounts have not kept up, and look rather anemic.

Having been through this kind of thing before, and somehow survived, I continue to promote ideas that have made money for clients, especially 2007-2009 when the last crash happened. While I don’t expect the next one to be as big, it will still be painful. Unless…

By Mark Hurlburt – September 9, 2014

London (MarketWatch) — Making the bullish case is getting a lot harder.

Let’s say that you want to wriggle out from underneath the bearish conclusions of the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), which for some time now has been very bearish. Sidestepping that conclusion turns out to be a lot harder than you think.

The CAPE is the version of the traditional P/E ratio that has been championed by Yale University finance professor (and recent Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller. Currently, for example, the CAPE stands at 25.69, which is 55% higher than its average back to the late 1800s of 16.55 and 61% higher than the ratio’s median level of 15.95. In fact, there have been only three times since the 1880s when the CAPE has been higher than where it stands today: 1929, 2000 and 2007 — all three of which, of course, coincided with major market highs.

The CAPE isn’t a perfect indicator, as Shiller himself will tell you. There are legitimate reasons to question its approach to market valuation. In addition, the bulls have shamelessly come up with myriad other “reasons” not to pay attention to it.

But Mebane Faber, chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management, has this to say to all these so-called CAPE haters: “Fine, don’t use it. Let’s substitute in book and cash flows, two totally different metrics.”

Unfortunately for the bulls, the conclusion of looking at the market from those alternate perspectives is almost identically bearish.

Courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research, Faber ranked 43 countries’ stock markets around the world according to their relative valuations according to the CAPE as well as to cyclically adjusted ratios of price-to-book, price-to-cash flow, and price-to-dividend. When ranked according to the CAPE, for example, with top ranking going to the most undervalued country’s stock market, the U.S. is in 41st place. Only two countries are more overvalued according to this indicator.

CAPE = 41
Cyclically-adjusted price-to-book ratio = 37
Cyclically-adjusted price-to-dividend ratio = 39
Cycilcally-adjusted price-to-cash-flows ratio = 36

To argue that the U.S. stock market isn’t overvalued, in other words, the bulls not only have to dismiss the CAPE but also argue why the U.S. market should be priced so richly relative to book value, cash flows and dividends.

That’s not necessarily impossible. But it is clear that the bulls have a lot more work cut out for them.

Furthermore, even if the bearish conclusions of these diverse indicators turn out to be right, you should know that they are long-term indicators, telling you very little about the market’s near-term direction. My favorite analogy to describe the situation comes from Ben Inker, co-head of the asset-allocation team at Boston-based money management firm GMO.

He likens the market to a leaf in a hurricane: “You have no idea where the leaf will be a minute or an hour from now,” he says. “But eventually gravity will win out and it will land on the ground.”

Bernanke Says 2008 Worse Than Great Depression

FDRMy Comments: Ben Bernancke is no longer Chairman of the Federal Reserve. However, before he became chairman he was widely recognized as a world class economist and an expert of the Great Depression. It was that expertise that gave him so much credibility as he maneuvered the Fed through 2008-2009 until earlier this year.

There is no question that many of us are still hurting. The gap between the haves and the have nots is increasing. The ability of many of us to spend money like we used to is limited, which to some degree keeps recovery uncertain.

There is blame to go around, but not because anyone or sector of the economy was and is evil. That presumes a conspiracy involving thousands of people which is enough to debunk that idea. Bad things happen from time to time. There is little point in worrying about the past; we can only influence the future, but an understanding of the dynamics that led to the mess may be helpful.

Brian Gilmartin, CFA, Aug. 28, 2014

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/08/26/2008-meltdown-was-worse-than-great-depression-bernanke-says/

The above link was copied and pasted from a Real Time Economics Wall Street Journal tweet yesterday (8/26), after Gentle Ben testified in the AIG litigation recently.

I think former Fed Chair Bernanke was right in concluding that 2008′s recession, if left to run its course, would have been a far greater calamity for the US economy than the Great Depression, but for different reasons:

1.) The money markets and the commercial paper market was at real risk of failure, which means S&P 500 companies couldn’t have rolled short-term high quality CP;

2.) Far more Americans through 401(k)s and pensions, had exposure to the stock and bond markets than Americans had in the late 1920′s and early 1930′s;

3.) A 70 year bull market in home prices came to a crashing halt, the first national real estate depressions since the 1930′s. While the US economy was thought to be a primarily agrarian economy during the Great Depression, single-family homes as a percentage of household net worth, would have been far greater in 2007 – 2008 than in the 1930′s;

4.) The truly shocking action for me wasn’t the Lehman default or even the Bear Stearns default, but the drop in Northern Trust’s and State Street’s stock in late September, early October, 2008. Northern Trust traded up to $88 in September ’08 only to collapse to $33 within a two week time frame. NTRS and STT are “global custodian” banks and thus are huge custodians (recordkeepers) for corporate pension plans and such, with far bigger assets in custody and administration than assets under management. If The Reserve Fund had broken the buck, there would have been true calamity in the Street and although it is simply a guess, I would have thought that the US unemployment rate would have seen 50% easily, at least over the near term;

5.) The Reserve Fund was, at that time (I believe) in 2008, one of the world’s largest money market funds, and if the Reserve Fund had “broken the buck” which means that if the Reserve Fund’s NAV had moved below $1 per share, it could have resulted in a run on money markets that would have made the bank run and the Bailey Building & Loan run (“It’s A Wonderful Life”) look like a day in the park. (The aftermath of what happened with the Reserve Fund in 2008 is that today, the SEC is contemplating and is close to letting money market fund NAVs (net asset values) float. The thought is that the $1 money market price creates a “moral hazard” and what I told a client recently is that what retail investors will likely wind up with is whole array of “ultra-short” bond funds as money market funds, which do fluctuate minimally in price.)

6.) Although some of the fiscal policy has been horrid since 2008, I do think that one of the root issues in the economic recovery following 2008 has been the true “shock” of the drop in real estate and household wealth. Remember consumption is 2/3rd’s of GDP and with the capital markets and the real estate markets, being two of the greatest wealth-creation vehicles post WWII (not to mention the value of an education), it is taking years for the consumer to restore their savings and confidence.

7.) The fact that “disinflation” (a declining rate of inflation) and deflation continue to be an issue 5 years after the stock market low and the substantial economic recovery, is indicative of lingering overcapacity. Part of that is due to the life-cycle of technology which has dramatically accelerated productivity and shortened tech product cycles (not to mention kept a lid on inflation) and part could be demographics and the Aging of America (it is a bigger debate);

8.) The Great Mistake in the 1930′s by the Federal Reserve is that they actually withdrew liquidity sometime in 1935 – 1936, which resulted in another downturn in the US economy in the late 1930′s just prior to WWII. In other words, Fed policy errors actually exacerbated the Great Depression, rather than shorten it. Both Janet Yellen (I’m sure), just like Ben Bernanke are / were both aware of the Fed’s policy mistakes and are obviously loathe to make the same mistake. The fact that there isn’t a meaningful inflation today just makes the Fed’s ability to maintain ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and low rates that much easier. However it will end at some point, and we will get some inflation, I would suspect.

Most intelligent investors blame leverage on the 2008 collapse, but I think it was far more involved than that. It just wasn’t that simple.

In client meetings the last few years, I’ve been telling clients that there is less than a 5% chance that they will see the 2008 confluence of events happen again in their lifetime (probably less).

Certainly I could be wrong, but I continue to think the US economy, and the US stock market, particularly the S&P 500 is in a perfect glide slope of healthy, albeit subdued growth, low inflation, and a healthy respect for stock volatility and negative sentiment on the part of retail investors.

One commentator from PIMCO called it the “Goldilocks economy” and the metaphor seems appropriate.
We will see S&P 500 corrections over time, but I will bet in 10 years that we will look back and see this period of time as similar to post WWII economic stability and growth. Perhaps that conclusion is somewhat of a stretch given the demographics of the US economy today, but we’ll see.

Thanks for reading today. We’ve been contemplating this commentary on 2008 for some time. Watching NTRS and STT trade in late September, early October, 2008 was one of the few times, I’ve felt true fear watching the stock market. The potential collapse of the money market as was being telegraphed by the global custodian banks, would have been a horrific scenario to conceive, let alone experience.

When all the books are written about the “near Great Collapse of 2008″ after 20 – 30 years of hindsight, I do think Ben Bernanke, then Treasury-Secretary Hank Paulson, and Tim Geithner will be due a huge debt of gratitude.
For a few days/weeks, educated American’s had a brief look into the abyss. It won’t be forgotten by those of us that sat through it.

Don’t Fight the U.S. Treasury Rally

USA EconomyMy Comments: We’ve been living in a low interest rate environment for some years now. The general consensus has been that they can’t get any lower and that the Fed will push them up if and when the US economy starts to see any inflationary pressure.

I know that clients, who for years depended on bond yield to satisfy their need for monthly income, have suffered. Folks who want the guarantees offered by Certificates of Deposit have despaired when they know they will only generate about 1% per year. Common wisdom tells many of us that safe investments are government issued bonds. And then they look at the S&P500 over the past few years and decide 20% is normal.

Now here is an article by a respected economist that tells us that interest rates can go lower. This is spite of negative interest rates in Japan where the central bank CHARGES you for buying from them. If you know what’s going on, please let me know.

By Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO

“U.S. Interest Rates Could Head Significantly Lower”

The consensus among market watchers last September was that, with U.S. interest rates so low and the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) about to withdraw stimulus, interest rates would trend higher. I took a different view, writing in a commentary that “10-year rates may be heading back to 2.25 percent or lower.”

When 10-year Treasury yields ended 2013 at 3.02 percent, some may have thought I had taken the wrong end of the bet. But in early August, 10-year Treasury yields went as low as 2.35 percent and I believe the path of least resistance on interest rates is still lower.

A number of factors have helped push Treasury yields lower. With yields on German 10-year Bunds dipping under 1 percent for the first time and Japanese government bonds yielding around 50 basis points, Treasuries look comparatively attractive. Add to that the perception that both the yen and euro are a one-way bet toward depreciation and it is reasonable to expect that international capital will continue flowing toward the U.S., pressuring Treasury yields down as quantitative easing draws to an end.

Tensions from Ukraine to Iraq have added to a flight-to-quality trade, boosting demand for U.S. Treasuries. With the size of incremental U.S. government borrowing also expected to decline because of shrinking federal budget deficits, Treasury yields could move lower.

Reduce Rate Risk

My original forecast of 2.0 to 2.25 percent still seems reasonable. Nevertheless, markets do not move in straight lines, so yields could retrace to 2.5 percent in the near term. Ultimately, as rates head back toward 2 percent portfolio managers should use the rally to reduce interest rate risk.
2014 gov bond rate history

As anyone experienced in investing in the U.S. mortgage market knows there is a phenomenon that traders call the “refi bid.” When interest rates fall, a larger percentage of mortgages become economically attractive to refinance at a lower interest rate.

Whenever a threshold is breached where a large amount of mortgages make attractive refinancing candidates, prepayments spike up dramatically and portfolios that own mortgages have a sudden surge in cash. This causes portfolio duration to shorten and leads to a need to buy longer duration assets in order to maintain the target portfolio duration. This demand surge can result in a sudden and dramatic decline in rates.

Currently, I estimate that the next “refi level” will hit when the 10-year Treasury yield drops to about 2.25 percent.

An unusual feature of this potential wave of mortgage refinancing is that the vast majority of U.S. mortgages are on the cusp of being candidates for refinancing, given the relative stability of mortgage rates over the past year or so. Additionally, there is one dominant holder of these mortgage securities that has vowed to reinvest in new mortgages as prepayments come in—the Fed.

Traditionally, in a refinancing rally, spreads on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) widen due to increased prepayment risk and expected increases in supply. Spreads will not widen on this occasion to the same extent as during previous refi rallies for a number of technical reasons.

Among those reasons is that the Fed, the biggest mortgage investor on the block, has made clear it will reinvest principal repayments dollar for dollar. Normally, the widening in mortgage spreads mutes the impact of the rate decline on mortgage rates, slowing the pace of refinancing.

This time, advertised mortgage rates are likely to fall more rapidly than in prior refi experiences.

Is It Too Late To Get Back In?

080519_USEconomy1My Comments: This is a writer I’ve learned to enjoy over the past several months. I’ve used his articles before and I do so here again. He makes such good sense.

posted by Jeffrey Dow Jones July 17,2014 in Cognitive Concord

I get all sorts of questions from all sorts of different investors. As strange as it seems, this is one of the most common right now. Is it too late? Clearly the last bear market had a permanent effect on investor psychology. Nobody was asking this question in 2006 or 2007.

The question doesn’t always take this exact form. Frequently I hear, “Isn’t the market too expensive here?”, or, “The market can’t possibly keep going up, can it?” or its straightforward non-question variant, “I hate the market because it’s too expensive.”

Those are all different ways of talking about the same basic concept. The market has run a long way and investors have a new type of uncertainty about how much longer it can keep running.

Did I miss it?

Is it too late?

The simple answer is that, no, it’s not too late to get in. The market can keep running, and running, and running… and running.

Have you ever looked at a 100 year Dow chart? The trajectory is pretty clear. If you have a sufficiently long horizon and truly don’t care about picking tops or bottoms then now is as good a time to buy as any.

CONTINUE-READING

Gauging The Stock Market With The Tocalino Index

bruegel-wedding-dance-ouMy Comments: Football season is about to start, Ukraine is still bothered by the Russians, and Ferguson, Missouri is still a mess. So here I am talking about the stock market and an index I have never heard of before. I suspect you haven’t either.

But there is reference here to the Misery Index, which I have heard of, though never followed. It’s the sum of the unemployment rate and rate of inflation. Right now it’s pretty low in historical terms and getting lower. That’s good.

My next question has to do with why so many of us think the world is coming to an end. Well, maybe it is, but I doubt it. A changed world, definitely, but one we must adapt to and stop with the constant message of doom.

By Sebastiao Buck Tocalino, August 12, 2014

Summary
• Here I’m gauging the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with the Help of the Tocalino Index (applying demographics to a variation on Arthur Melvin Okun’s Misery Index).
• The point that stands out recently is the noticeable gap between the rapid rise of the Dow Jones index and the lagging behavior of my own indicator from 2009 onward.
• The market seems to be feeding more on some sort of paranoia or complacency from the lack of investment alternatives than any demographic, business and economic fundamentals could ever support.

Among the many indicators that track the health of the economy, two are very popular due to the obvious affliction they may inflict on all of us regular Joes and Janes. They are: the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. Between the two of them, inflation is often the most conspicuous. After all, we routinely have to reach for our wallets to pay for our daily needs and those of our children, including education and a variety of goods and services. But, if the unemployment rate is somewhat less followed by those who hold on to a steady job, it is still the most distressing for the less fortunate ones who are out of work!

Arthur Melvin Okun was a professor of economics at the famous Yale University, later he was also an important economic advisor to presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson. Besides “Okun’s Law,” another well-known contribution of his to the tracking of economic trends was the Misery Index. Its formulation could not be any simpler or more intuitive: it was just the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Naturally, to be out of work and having to cope with an escalating cost of life is a sheer disastrous situation leading to social distress, therefore the obvious choice of name for this indicator: the Misery Index.

(Some economists may say that, with a delay of one year or so, this Misery Index, with its implicit social distress, would be a contributing factor to swings in the rate of crimes. I tend to believe that crime is still more related to cultural issues.)

Personally, I don’t usually pay much attention to this index and believe that few people actually do. Though we pay close attention to its two constituents separately. But for some time recently, I have been glancing at the Misery Index and its downward trajectory in the U.S. It is clear that, in spite of all the insane efforts in printing money and keeping real interest rates negative and punitive for the more cautious and conservative majority of savers, inflation is still modest and below the target aimed by the FOMC and the Federal Reserve. By the end of June, the twelve-month inflation climbed a tad higher at 2.07%. Data relative to the closing of July is scheduled to be released only on Aug. 19.

At the closing of June, to the cheers of everyone, the unemployment rate had also fallen to 6.1%. It did rise slightly to 6.2% in July, as reported on Aug. 1.

Trying to avoid much of the noise in inflation data, I will adopt from now on the 12-month core inflation rate, which excludes the more disruptive cost swings of food and energy (due to the villainy of oil prices). The core inflation for the 12 months ended last June was of 1.93%. By using that same month’s unemployment rate of 6.1%, the sum has resulted in an 8.03% Misery Index.
Misery Index

CONTINUE-READING

9 Reasons Consumers Need Advisors More Than Ever

My Comments: This is a self-serving blog post. While I should apologize for this, there are millions of Americans who will find themselves looking for financial freedom in the years to come and unless they have developed the necessary skill sets, they will find themselves behind the curve in a big way. Somebody has to step up and provide good advice. I like to think of myself as one of those with good advice.

The title says there are 9 reasons here but I didn’t count to see if it was true. I simply found some meaningful truths about us and how people in my profession can help others. Oh, and make a meaningful living for ourselves as the years pass. That’s always a good thing.

I don’t share the underlying gloom that motivates Van Mueller, but there are truths in what he says. As consumers, it’s what we do with information that will make the difference.

Aug 13, 2014 | By Paul Wilson

Van Mueller kicked off the 2014 Advisor Network Summit in Las Vegas.

“Right now we are in the middle of the greatest opportunity in the history of the industry. Every single institution we think we can depend on won’t be there in the future. We’re not in a recovery – the government is printing trillions of dollars. Soon, you’re going to see crashes in stocks, bonds and real estate markets.

The world just went $100 trillion in debt. The U.S. is $17 trillion in debt, but the rest of the world is $83 trillion in debt – there’s no one to borrow from. We’re so close to a calamity and the only people who can help are in this room.”

“The attention span of an average American is 12 seconds. No commercial is longer than 30 seconds now because people don’t pay attention that long.

Nobody cares about you; it’s about them. Customers tell me, ‘You’re the smartest advisor I know.’ But I don’t know anything other than how to ask what matters to people.”

“Don’t you think any politician would fix the economy if they could? But no one knows what’s coming next.

Ask your clients, ‘If nobody knows what’s going to happen, should you take a lot of risk and put your money in danger or develop a strategy that will keep your money safe and every time something bad happens, you take advantage of it?’

Politics isn’t going to fix this; it’s a math problem. It’s about taking responsibility for our own lives. Show people they can stay in control. We sell control.”

“45 percent of all working Americans have nothing saved for retirement. When you are talking with affluent prospects, ask them, ‘Do you think our government is going to let those people starve? No. How will they help them? They’re coming after those who have money.’ You’re running out of time to take control of your money and lives.”

“Half of Americans can’t afford their current home. One little downturn, and you’re talking about a house of cards. Tell your customers, ‘It doesn’t have to happen to you.’”

“Some people say, ‘This sounds like a lot of doom and gloom.’ Many people give up and say, ‘There’s nothing I can do.’ Tell them, ‘Have there ever been bad times before? During those bad times, did some people make money? Was it those who were prepared or those who winged it? Which do you want to be?‘”

“There was no such thing as the good old days. This is the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the U.S. It’s the greatest time ever to be an agent. You are not each other’s enemies. Find fellow advisors and get better.”