Tag Archives: Gainesville

Stuck in the Mud: Beyond America’s Fiscal Trench Lines

world economyMy Comments: I recall a conversation I had some three years ago where someone asked me if I followed Keynes or did I follow the Austrian approach. Not knowing at the time just what this person was asking, I responded “Keynes” since I knew more or less how Keynes mind worked and had no idea yet about how Hayeks mind worked.

Today that boils down to a political chasm between Democrats and Republicans. It need now be so but it is. And who is ulitmately right or wrong remains to be seen. Perhaps neither to the degree that today they are almost polar opposites. Meanwhile, the folks in Washington, those whom we presumably elected to represent us and every other citizen of this country, are mired in ideology and incapable of looking beyond their own narrow vision. Wish it were not so but …

By Edward Luce | The Financial Times | May 12, 2013

When historians look back on the meltdown of 2008 they will conclude that the country that triggered it – the US – was among the least bad in its continuing monetary and in its initial fiscal response. What a frustration, then, that the US finds itself endlessly relitigating the debate between Keynesians and anti-Keynesians.

In the past few weeks, the intellectual tide has turned sharply towards the former following revelations of errors by Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt. This has been assisted by the IMF’s change of heart about the merits of short-term stimuli. Moreover, austerians, such as Niall Ferguson, the Harvard historian, continue to aid their own discrediting by dredging up the canard about John Maynard Keynes’s “childless vision” – linking his homosexuality to an alleged reckless disregard for the long term.

Yet for all the academic sound and fury, US politics is unchanged and apparently unchangeable: mild fiscal contraction is set to dilute the US recovery for at least another year. Democrats are impotent against Republican stonewalling in the House of Representatives. And Republicans can do nothing about Barack Obama’s veto – or Democratic control of the Senate. Which means we are condemned to at least another year of hypothetical fiscal debates. Here, vindicated though they may be on counter-cyclical fiscal policy, Keynesians are guilty of sins of omission.

Like Gresham’s law, the fiscal debate tends to drive out others. Keynesians want bigger deficits. The Tea Party wants smaller government. The more dominant these battle lines, the harder it is to craft ways out. New federal investment may be off the menu. But US companies are sitting on almost $2tn in cash reserves and have almost the same again parked offshore – a multiple of any possible federal investment. Public action could crowd-in private investments without troubling the taxpayer. And the resultant boost to productivity would reduce the burden of future obligations. “What we need is not bigger or smaller government for growth, but narrower and stronger government,” says Paul Romer, the growth economist.

Might there still be ways in Washington around these entrenched positions? Next week, John Delaney, a freshman Democratic congressman, will test that proposition when he launches a bill designed with an eye both on what is economically useful and politically sellable. The Rebuild America Act would give companies that repatriate foreign earnings a tax break on whatever they invest in a new infrastructure fund. Unlike a public bank, the fund would underwrite bonds to fund state, local and municipal projects – there would be no new federal bureaucracy.

It is hard to see how Republicans could object on substance to a bill that gave tax breaks to companies to improve US infrastructure. We shall see if they treat it on merit or politics. It will also be interesting to see how many other Democrats, and Keynesians, embrace its logic. Mr Delaney, who had a long career in private equity, has an accurate diagnosis of US politics. “Intransigent partisanship is getting in the way of our country having a proactive, pro-growth government,” he says. “Our tired fiscal impasse is not only a daily headache in Washington, it’s become a real competitiveness issue for our economy.”

To be sure, his biggest challenge – and that of almost any legislator taking any initiative – will be to get around the scorched-earth caucus in the Republican party, that opposes anything that could be seen as a success for public action. But there are cynics on both sides. Last month, Barack Obama appointed an industry insider, Tom Wheeler, as the next head of the Federal Communications Commission. People who have donated generously to Mr Obama’s campaigns were happy with Mr Wheeler’s nomination. Others less so.

The FCC could make simple changes to stimulate more investment in the cable and wireless sectors, which would help return US average internet speeds to the top of international tables. Mr Wheeler could also accelerate the FCC’s dilatory schedule for auctioning off public spectrum. “In just the same way that mergers result in job losses, creating and licensing multiple platforms for technology will create jobs,” says Reed Hundt, who was Bill Clinton’s highly successful FCC chair in the booming 1990s.

Defenders of Mr Wheeler say he will be keen to establish his distance from an oligopolistic industry that hired him as their advocate. They make the same argument, too, for Mary Jo White, the new chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, who has spent her career representing Wall Street. Recent SEC moves give little cause for cheer. In isolation, bills such as Mr Delaney’s, or the rulings of federal agencies, do not match the importance, or scale, of the fiscal debate. But the US budget is stuck in the mud. And there are other sources of growth.

It is worth remembering that Keynes was a champion of the “middle way”. Yet foes, and occasionally friends, reduce him to a free-spending caricature. “I suggest that the state encouragement of new capital undertakings by employing the best technical advice … and by lending the credit and the guarantee of the Treasury to finance them more boldly, is becoming an inevitable policy,” Keynes wrote in the 1920s. These are the thoughts of an economist looking to the long term. With the possible exception of the final clause, they are also a good description of Mr Delaney’s bill.

In Britain, Our Sex Scandals Petraeus

My Comments: This whole episode is so mindbogglingly stupid that I simply shake my head in dismay. Yes, I know, hormonal activity is not something easily brushed aside, but this is a man with an allegedly iron will whose self discipline is legendary.

But, since this is Friday, I’m still exhausted by the recent election, and I come originally from Britain, where this article was written, I decided I ought to share with you what folks across the Atlantic are saying.

By Robert Shrimsley for The Financial Times

There is so much to enjoy in the Petraeus sex and society scandal convulsing the US establishment at the moment that one hardly knows where to begin; perhaps with a warning. There are people who look at incidents such as Gen Petraeus’ adultery and resignation as personal tragedies; they think of the families, the wives, the children and see nothing entertaining in it. If you are among that group, you may wish to read no further since this notebook takes the distasteful position that the whole thing is a rollicking great soap opera, complete with socialites, sex, jealousy, intrigue, betrayal, hubris and spies. Yes there are children but if their parents weren’t prepared to let that fact spoil their fun, why should we let it spoil ours?

As with many such events there will be red herrings and false trails. We are not at all sure whether the second general did, in fact, have an affair. Some strongly worded denials have been issued. We do not really know what exactly the second woman, Jill Kelley, might or might not have done, although we can certainly enjoy the sideshow of the glamorous socialite twins from Tampa, at least one of whom spent so much to become a “social ambassador” to the military that she could not meet her mortgage payments. The pair look like a subset of Kardashians and may yet secure their own mini series, Keeping up with the Kelleys. We would dearly love to know more about the “shirtless man” – the so far anonymous FBI agent whose initial investigations were the first push on the tower that has now toppled.

There is the delicious irony of the head of the CIA being unable to conjure up a more sophisticated method of covert communication than a shared Gmail address with his lover, Paula Broadwell. One shudders to think about the other great tradecraft they deployed. Was there a sophisticated number code in which 1 was A, 2 was B and so on? Did they have codenames such as snookiepoops and big bear? Did he wear a false moustache for illicit meetings or use spook euphemisms to obscure what was going on. “Snookiepoops@gmail.com: Target is on the move, wearing a halter-neck top and a lace-number. Expected to rendezvous: 1900 hours.”

But mostly, one simply watches the magnitude of this soap opera with a sense of awe at its sweep and scale, and reflects that we Brits are simply no longer in the game when it comes to this kind of thing. Yes, we can rustle up the odd bit of adultery but it’s either terribly low grade – mostly involving a middle-aged chap and his secretary – or genuinely sordid, involving rent boys, prostitutes or dead dogs. The principals are rarely glamorous. We haven’t had a world-beating sex scandal since Profumo. The royal family did its bit to maintain British viability during the 1990s – Diana, Princess of Wales certainly kept us on the world stage – but truthfully, we simply cannot deliver the richness, texture and panorama of a top US scandal. We are Ken Loach to America’s Steven Spielberg.

This is just one more symbol of our national decline. It is salutary to consider how this scandal might have looked in Britain. Instead of twins in Tampa holding huge parties for the troops we would be talking about spinsters in Aldershot organising cake sales and dances at the church hall. The affair itself might have taken place in a grace and favour residence but more likely it will have been at a Premier Inn off the M25.

We may have put on a good show during the Olympics but we should not delude ourselves that this puts us back in the big league. The UK has, at one time or another, invaded 90 per cent the world’s countries but when it comes to the bedroom front we can’t muster a surgical incursion worthy of international coverage.

What makes this harder to stomach is that we are also falling behind our European allies. France, for example, is still managing to strut its stuff on the world stage. Even when the scandals are less than scandalous they have an élan about them that shows the political class recognises its duty to boost national prestige. The former justice minister has just filed a paternity suit against a hotel tycoon; the president’s complex love life makes for good copy and, of course, he got the job only because the frontrunner was Dominique Strauss-Kahn. In Italy meanwhile, Silvio Berlusconi … need one say more? This, then, is one more challenge for David Cameron. We do not need him to take it on personally but somewhere, someone senior needs to make the ultimate career sacrifice. The country’s honour is at stake.

8 Stock Market Omens That Influence Investors

My Comments: For years I’ve sort of paid attention to omens; how else are you going to justify the bizarre outcomes that invevitably happen and influence how much money my clients end up with over the years. The tempatation, no matter how professional you try to be, is to respond to the advice of those whose skills you respect and whose track record is at least respectable.

A few years ago I decided that enough was enough and I found an approach that ignores omens. The single key ingredient of the approach is the ability of each program manager to evaluate what is happening on any given day, week and month and determine if the odds are better for being invested or staying in cash. Then add the ability to go short and/or leveraged, and the results have been nothing short of phenomenal.

If you’re tired of omens, give me a call.

This article comes from AdvisorOne.com and was written by Dan Berman.

Stock traders might like to believe markets rise and fall based on logic and cold facts, but deep down they know the truth is far more complicated. Emotions, a snippet of news about the economy and myriad other factors can send prices plummeting or rocketing skyward.

While some emotions are driven by the news and other information that has some factual basis, there are some “indicators” followed that are best called omens, or maybe superstitions. These are based on some observed phenomena seen as causing the markets to move.

A well-known example is trotted out every year as the Super Bowl nears. It holds that if the team from the National Football Conference wins the market will rise and vice-versa. There’s no reason this should be true, of course, but the statistics are trotted out each year.

And lest you think the upcoming presidential election has some predictive value, the data shows that whether the Republicans or Democrats win likely has no affect on the price of stocks.

There may not be anything substantive to stock market omens, but they are fun to think about. Here are AdvisorOne’s 8 Stock Market Omens That Influence Investors:
Continue Reading HERE...

Obama’s Next Task is to Split the GOP

My Comments: I have absolutely no idea how the next four years are going to work out for any of us. I am optimistic that it will be OK because for me the glass is always half full. It’s not in my nature to get wrapped up in woe and gloom.

For better or worse, Obama is in the White House, and if we want a solid future for our children and grandchildren, we have to take an adult approach to what are clearly adult problems. Picking up your ball and taking it home with you, whining all the way, is not going to cut it.

If Obama can find a way to work with whatever rational leadership there is in the GOP, then we can move forward on immigration, on reforming the tax system, and getting the deficit under control. My thinking is he can.

By Edward Luce | Financial Times

Last week the US equity markets gave their verdict on the election, ending the week more than 2 per cent down from the start. The market’s pessimism was clear: the probability rose on Tuesday night that the US will go over the fiscal cliff. To put it another way, Barack Obama’s win sharply reduced the Republican appetite to avert a fiscal crisis. Which seems about right.

There are occasions in a nation’s politics when the overhang of decisions can no longer be contained. In the case of America’s governability, this is the key equation: there is no path back to a half-decently functioning Washington that does not involve either a dramatic change of heart by the Republicans, or, less unlikely, a deepening split within it. Steep as they are, the stakes go far higher than the impending fiscal cliff.

Should the GOP remain united in opposition to Mr Obama (who has a broadly centrist approach to America’s economic challenges), the US will become cripplingly ungovernable. Look at California over the past generation. Alternatively, should the Republican party lose its iron discipline, and no longer reflexively act as a blocking minority in the Senate and a blocking majority in the House, events could turn out much better.

The difference between gridlock and a restored climate of pragmatism is stark. Were the GOP to continue to block everything Mr Obama proposes, America’s relative decline will accelerate. Conversely, if enough were regularly to dissent from their party’s suicide pact, all sorts of possibilities would open up. Think of immigration reform, a cleansing of America’s byzantine tax system, upgrading of US infrastructure, and even action on global warming.

There can be little doubt this is also Mr Obama’s prognosis. There are two reasons why his only realistic chance of success is to aim for a GOP split. The first is the reaction of most Republicans to last Tuesday’s defeat – a prospect that few, including Mitt Romney, had entertained. Many have observed that the Republican party is in denial. Republican strategists blame the loss on everything from media bias to Hurricane Sandy.

But the quandary runs far deeper than denial. Among the conservative Tea Party groups, Tuesday’s vote only confirmed that the US is heading rapidly in the wrong direction. In their account, Mr Obama’s Democrats have bribed enough of the undeserving poor with taxpayers’ money to fall into their camp. As it happens, most of them are non-white. Rush Limbaugh, the influential radio host, fretted last week that “we are outnumbered”.

Quoting Corinthians on her Facebook page, Sarah Palin crystallised the belief that the election was a call to arms, rather than a moment for reassessment. “We are persecuted, but not forsaken, struck down, but not destroyed,” the 2008 vice-presidential nominee wrote. This is the nativist wing of the Republican Party. Having in Mitt Romney fielded yet another Rino (Republican in name only), the party was punished for straying from its principles.

It is a view shared by other powerful strains in the party, including the anti-tax powerhouse led by Grover Norquist. Last Friday, Mr Norquist said that any Republicans thinking of wavering on their anti-tax pledge would “be punished even for impure thoughts”. Mr Norquist cited two of the four Republicans in the bipartisan Senate “Gang of Eight”, who are up for re-election in 2012, as “eminently primary-able” – vulnerable to conservative challenges.

The second thing going for a Republican split is there are also many who grasp the gravity of their party’s direction. Ronald Brownstein, the Washington journalist, captures the GOP’s demographic reality with his 80:40 rule. If Democrats win 80 per cent of the non-white vote and 40 per cent of the white vote, they are undefeatable. That is roughly what happened last Tuesday.

At the Republican convention in August a clock showed the national debt. It should have kept demographic time. In Texas, the bastion of today’s Republican party, the majority of schoolchildren are Hispanics. Each election, more will reach voting age. Some Republicans understand the import of this, among them probably John Boehner, the speaker (and figures such as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush).

Mr Obama’s goal will be to make it easier for Mr Boehner to argue for pragmatism within his party. But the US will first have to go over the cliff. Mr Boehner faces his own speakership election in January. He will not wish to jeopardise his grip by compromising on taxes before then. After the expiry of all the Bush tax cuts on January 1, he will be better placed to persuade some Republicans to vote for what would be packaged as a tax cut for 98 per cent of Americans – leaving the cause of the rich to another day. Thus, the US probably will go over the cliff. Whether, or how quickly, it will yo-yo back is harder to forecast.

As a Roman once said, the victor is not victor if the vanquished do not agree. Last week’s outcome left Washington’s division of spoils unaltered – Mr Boehner’s Republicans were returned to the majority. Through brinkmanship and seduction, Mr Obama must try to persuade enough Republicans to accept reality and then act on it. Whatever does happen, the next few months will offer gripping theatre. By February or March, we will be far wiser on the future of US governability.

Obama Has Four Years to Fix the Economy

My comments: When I saw this title, I had my doubts. Part of that is because no President has enough necessary tools, and because one doesn’t “fix” the economy; it more or less has a life of its own.

If I “believe” things are better, which is a mindset, and not written in stone, then I’m more likely to spend more money this holiday season. And if there are collectively more people who “believe” as I do, then it will be self-fulfilling.

I’m reminded of a broker who use to work in my office. When asked why stock prices went down, his response to a client was that it was because more people were selling than were buying, and when they went up, it was because more people were buying than selling.

Across the globe, this is what is happening and my bet is that over the next four years, there are going to be more people buying than are selling. I “believe” that four years from now, we’ll identify ourselves as being in a period similar to how it was from 1982 to 2000.

By Jeffrey Sachs

The US election was fought on first principles: should government be strengthened or dismantled? The answer was resounding. The public wants better government, not less government.

Much of the economic debate in the US has been over short-term stimulus but the election turned on long-term structural issues. Barack Obama solidly carried much of the Midwest because he championed an industrial policy for the automobile and allied industries. What saved the Midwest was not a temporary stimulus but a skilful rescue package, complete with government financing and public investment in research and development directed at next-generation electric vehicles.

Though climate change was the issue, neither candidate wanted to mention it played the leading role in the final act, in the form of Hurricane Sandy. Not only was the east coast reminded of the furies of a rising ocean level; it was reminded again of the need for collective action to anticipate, ameliorate, and respond to emergencies.

The problem for Mr Obama in the second term is that he does not yet have an economic strategy commensurate with his vision of a proactive government. Low tax revenues continue to leave the US vulnerable. The US government collected only 32 per cent of gross domestic product in revenues last year, compared with 38 per cent in Canada, 45 per cent in Germany and 49 per cent in Sweden. The latter countries can overcome budget deficits, poverty and outdated infrastructure. The US cannot. It will need a tax ratio like Canada’s by later this decade to get the job done.

Yet revenues are not enough. The entire Keynesian apparatus that dominates Democratic party circles is also outdated and outmoded. It is a cyclical theory trying to fit a secular (that is, long-term) structural challenge. The US needs massive overhauls of its key economic sectors, almost all of which have public and private sector components that are deeply intertwined. Aggregate demand management cannot fix excessive healthcare and college costs, broken infrastructure, or an economy based on fossil fuel that needs to be decarbonised.

The modern president must therefore not be the overseer of aggregate demand but the conductor of deep-seated structural changes. He should be the convener of governors, mayors, university presidents, CEOs, healthcare providers and scientists to clear the obstacles from investment programmes in energy, education, infrastructure, health and skills.

Mr Obama’s legacy should be to foster the overhaul of the US economy. The IT revolution can and should lead to low-cost online universities, radically lower healthcare costs, smart grids, smart cities and smart low-carbon energy systems. The government can lead the way, for example, using the federally supported land-grant universities to lower the costs of higher education through IT-enabled delivery. It can truly leave no child behind – as President George W. Bush’s education reform promised – not through a naive test regime, but through upgraded pre-school programmes for poor kids, IT-enabled schools, e-tutoring, and countless other innovations already taking hold around the world but strangely lagging behind in the US.

Who will pay and who will back this new dispensation? It is easier than it looks. Wipe out the tax havens by charging a minimum 20 per cent corporate tax rate on all companies whether they book their profits in the Cayman Islands or not. Cap deductions for high-income taxpayers. Impose a modest wealth tax on the mega-rich. And tax carbon emissions and financial transactions. These measures are tough politics but good economics, and they are good revenue raisers. And they would fund a true reform agenda.

As for the governing coalition, the president need not put the fate of his reforms in the hands of Congressional holdouts and K-Street lobbyists. The business is with the people, and notably with the mayors and governors around the country. They want answers to storm surges, flooding, traffic jams, overpriced education and healthcare, and so on. They need electricity every day. This means four years of problem-solving out in the country. Yes, I’m sorry to say it, but the campaign has just begun. Yet this one is for America’s future, not for an elective office.

The writer is director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and author of ‘The Price of Civilization’

An Investment Designed for Income

From time to time an idea comes across my desk that I find compelling. So I decide to share it with clients and those of you who might become my clients. And while this blog is not supposed to be a commercial, meaningful retirement income is a very real problem these days which explains why I’m writing about it here.

Three points come to mind that seem to justify my talking about this idea:

One is that interest rates today are very low and a meaningful income from investments is hard to find.

Two is that the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping interest rates low going forward.

Three is that what came across my desk has, in my judgment, a reasonable risk profile and pays you 7% net.

Most people I talk with and advise are essentially conservative when it comes to their money. Many were burned by what happened in 2008-2009 and what we are now calling the “great recession”. All are essentially sitting on the sidelines waiting for interest rates to return to “normal” so they can experience an income they can live with.

The nature of this investment is called a Renewable Secured Debenture. These are publicly registered corporate debt offerings, secured by the corporate assets of the offering company. If those assets are questionable, then you have to be doubly careful before you decide to invest.

In this case, those assets consist of life insurance policies purchased by the offering company that insure the lives of unknown individuals across the country. There is a huge and largely unknown market in existing life insurance contracts, a market that has existed for many years, largely unregulated, and not popular with the life insurance industry.

However, when the owner of a contract no longer has a need for the policy or for whatever reason cannot pay the premium, a legitimate option is to sell the contract, take the proceeds and do something else. Meanwhile, the new owner continues to pay the premium and sooner or later, the insured person or persons fails to wake up one morning and a claim is made to collect the death benefit.

All this sounds kind of morbid, but from a financial perspective, makes a lot of sense. The trick is to find contracts for sale that are issued by well rated companies, pay a reasonable price to transfer ownership, and have the resources necessary to continue the premiums to a logical end. If you can do that, from a financial perspective, it makes sense.

In 2009, according to the American Council of Life Insurers, consumers lapsed and surrendered $752 Billion in life insurance policy benefits. From an insurance company perspective, this was pure gravy, since they no longer had to pay out when someone died, while having collected premiums on those policies from day one.

If you have a pot of money to put to work, and you have a network of people scouring the country for those contracts, you can be very selective, offer to purchase a contract and give the existing owner cash now when their only other option is to walk away with nothing.

The company behind the Renewable Secured Debenture has purchased over 30,000 of these contracts since 2006, contracts that either have or will eventually pay the newly named beneficiary $1.4 Billion dollars. That’s the source of the income that an investor can expect to receive if they elect to participate.

Yes, there are risks here. The life insurance company could experience difficulty and not be able to pay the death benefit, for example. Other bad things could happen. But with a minimum investment threshold of $25,000, this is something to think about.

3 Self-Defeating Investor Behaviors:

By Joyce Hanson, AdvisorOne

The intricacies of investor psychology shed light on what people are doing to miss out on long-term opportunities—and on how advisors can help them overcome those behavioral hurdles, according to a recent report from Franklin Templeton Investments.

Behavioral phenomena can have a negative impact on investor psychology, says Franklin Templeton in a wide-ranging “thought leadership” comment, “2020 Vision: Time to Take Stock,” on its public website.

Investors experienced loss during the 2008-2009 financial market crisis, and much of their negative perceptions of market growth stems from that time. As a result, many investors are afraid of experiencing the same sort of loss now.

With the help of Predictably Irrational author and behavioral economist Dan Ariely, Franklin Templeton pinpoints three behavioral reasons why investors may be missing out on opportunities for the long term.
Continue Reading HERE...

America’s Global Election

My Comments: You can argue if you like that the writer, a Nobel laureate in economics, is simply a misguided Democrat. But as the US accepts the leadership role in the globalization process it began following WWII, it must recognize that for the sake of our grandchildren, there is more at stake than simply being the worlds strongest military power.

Whether you have voted in the coming election already or not, these words will make you think about the consequences.

By Joseph E. Stiglitz.

NEW YORK – Most people around the world will not be able to vote in the United States’s upcoming presidential election, even though they have a great deal at stake in the result. Overwhelmingly, non-US citizens favor Barack Obama’s re-election over a victory for his challenger, Mitt Romney. There are good reasons for this.

In terms of the economy, the effects of Romney’s policies in creating a more unequal and divided society would not be directly felt abroad. But, in the past, for better and for worse, others have often followed America’s example.

Many governments quickly subscribed to Ronald Reagan’s mantra of deregulated markets – policies that eventually brought about the worst global recession since the 1930’s. Other countries that followed America’s lead have experienced growing inequality – more money at the top, more poverty at the bottom, and a weaker middle class.

Romney’s proposed contractionary policies – the attempt to reduce deficits prematurely, while the US economy is still frail – will almost surely weaken America’s already anemic growth, and, if the euro crisis worsens, it could bring on another recession. At that point, with US demand shrinking, the rest of the world would indeed feel the economic effects of a Romney presidency quite directly.

That raises the question of globalization, which entails concerted action on many fronts by the international community. But what is required with regard to trade, finance, climate change, and a host other areas is not being done. Many people attribute these failures partly to an absence of American leadership. But, while Romney may summon bravado and strong rhetoric, other world leaders would be unlikely to follow him, owing to the belief (correct in my judgment) that he would take the US – and them – in the wrong direction.

American “exceptionalism” may sell well at home, but it does poorly abroad. President George W. Bush’s Iraq war – arguably a violation of international law – showed that though America spends almost as much on defense as the rest of the world combined, it could not pacify a country with less than 10% of its population and less than 1% of its GDP.

Moreover, it turned out that US-style capitalism was neither efficient nor stable. With most Americans’ incomes stagnating for a decade and a half, it was clear that the US economic model was not delivering for most citizens, whatever official GDP data said. Indeed, the model blew up even before Bush left office. Together with the abuses of human rights under his administration, the Great Recession – the predictable (and predicted) consequence of his economic policies – did as much to weaken America’s soft power as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan did to weaken the credibility of its military power.

In terms of values – namely, the values of Romney and his running mate, Paul Ryan – things are not much better. For example, every other advanced country recognizes the right to accessible health care, and Obama’s Affordable Care Act represents a significant step toward that goal. But Romney has criticized this effort, and has offered nothing in its place.

America now has the distinction of being among the advanced countries that afford the least equality of opportunity to their citizens. And Romney’s drastic budget cutbacks, targeted at the poor and middle class, would further impede social mobility. At the same time, he would expand the military, spending more money on weapons that do not work against enemies that do not exist, enriching defense contractors like Halliburton at the expense of desperately needed public investment in infrastructure and education.

While Bush is not on the ballot, Romney has not really distanced himself from the Bush administration’s policies. On the contrary, his campaign has featured the same advisers, the same devotion to higher military spending, the same belief that tax cuts for the rich are the solution to every economic problem, and the same fuzzy budget math.

Consider, for example, the three issues that are at the center of the global agenda mentioned earlier: climate change, financial regulation, and trade. Romney has been silent on the first, and many in his party are “climate deniers.” The world cannot expect genuine leadership from Romney there.

As for financial regulation, while the recent crisis has highlighted the need for stricter rules, agreement on many issues has proven to be elusive, partly because the Obama administration is too close to the financial sector. With Romney, though, there would be no distance at all: metaphorically speaking, he is the financial sector.

One financial issue on which there is global agreement is the need to close down offshore bank havens, which exist mainly for purposes of tax evasion and avoidance, money laundering, and corruption. Money does not go to the Cayman Islands because sunshine makes it grow faster; this money thrives on the absence of sunshine. But, with Romney unapologetic about his own use of Cayman banks, we are unlikely to see progress even in this area.

On trade, Romney promises to launch a trade war with China, and to declare it a currency manipulator on Day One – a promise that gives him little wiggle room. He refuses to note the renminbi’s large real appreciation in recent years, or to acknowledge that, while changes in China’s exchange rate may affect the bilateral trade deficit, what matters is America’s multilateral trade deficit. A stronger renminbi would simply mean a switch in the US from China to lower-cost producers of textiles, apparel, and other goods.

The irony – again lost on Romney – is that other countries are accusing the US of currency manipulation. After all, one of the main benefits of the Federal Reserve’s policy of “quantitative easing” – perhaps the only channel with a significant effect on the real economy – derives from the depreciation of the US dollar.

The world has a lot riding on America’s election. Unfortunately, most people who will be affected by it – almost the entire world – will have no influence on the outcome.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-romney-is-wrong-for-the-us-presidency-by-joseph-e–stiglitz#5qIOo4ihFhweQ2Rh.99

China and Its’ Political Future

My Comments: I like to think of myself as an economist, albeit an amateur. For the past 70 years, since the end of WWII, this country has been pushing economic development across the planet. Our efforts have resulted in incredible wealth in nations that can be called rising great powers. And there has been a steady erosion of massive military conflicts.

The cost of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, from a humam point of view is, while tragic, small compared to what happened in World War II. But those who stand to profit from military conflict are always eager to talk about the threat and fear of the next “massive” threat to our security. Never mind that we currently have the necessary firepower to obliterate any country on the planet and send them back to the stone age.

I feel strongly that China, along with India, are likely to be our economic partners in the coming decades. This is reinforced by comments and blogs from Tom Barnett, who authored this piece and its reference to an article that appeared recently in the Wall Street Journal. It’s worth reading.

Here it is from a WSJ piece:

China’s latest evidence of sputtering growth underlnes a dilemma for its incoming leaders: They can shore up the economy by doubling down on an exhausted growth model, or take a risky political bet on reforms that could worsen the slowdown in the short term.

That not only captures where China is today (as in, this quarter), it basically captures where China is for the next decade or so. I mean, what happens to a “communist” party when the progressive era necessarily arrives?

Well, the first instinct is to try and run it yourself, maintaining single-party rule, but that’s basically impossible. The pain meted out will create blowbacks, no matter whether you direct it at the “gilded age” elite or the increasingly demanding middle class or the decidedly put-upon working class. Worse, in the end, you’ll need to disappoint them all on some level, which is where that throw-the-bums-out dynamic comes in handy: a party wins and does what is necessary, outlives its welcome, and then gets tossed. But in a sustainable progressive era, the opposition party that then comes in also does its bit, just tackling a different segment until its welcome is worn out. And so on.

That’s how the US did it 1890 onward. When the Dems or GOP won, they won big and ruled big and changed big, and we got a much better country for it.

China lacks that ability due to the stultifying nature of single-party rule, which, contrary to our green-eyed fantasies, is NOT more agile or adept or bold or visionary in its leadership. Instead, it is self-preserving in the extreme. It’s bread-and-circuses. It rules by fear and in fear of its own public.

The WSJ piece is all about giving more money to consumers and the “dangers” inherent to that process. It’s a proxy description of the coming democratization of China, because giving money to consumers is giving decision-making power to the average citizen, versus hoarding it within the elite. It’s the economic prelude to the democratic denouement.

China has already reached the democratizing point. I still believe it will muddle along with years before taking the plunge, in part because of that stultifying nature of single-party rule. If we’re lucky, Xi Jinping will be a real leader, but even if he is, we’ll most likely have to wait a good 5-7 years to see that turn out. That’s how long it will take him to consolidate power as the evidence for the needed change piles up all around him.

And yes, those two dynamics are deeply intertwinned.

America’s job? Don’t provide any stupid excuses for Beijing to avoid facing their own realities.

The “strategic pivot” is just such an excuse, which tells me Obama and Co. don’t really understand China.
Sad to say, Romney’s answers are beyond stupid and have no chance of being implemented (thank God).

Referenced from: http://thomaspmbarnett.com/#ixzz2AE8P1hdb

Health Costs to Double Under Romney Plan?

My Comments: When I first saw this headline, I said to myself this cannot be right. And then when I saw it came from an organization that supports health care reform, I thought there had to be some bias here. And there may be, but…

As someone who cut their teeth in the insurance industry selling health insurance policies almost 40 years ago, I think I have some understanding of how health insurance works. And I’m a proponent of the Affordable Healthcare Act, not because I think it has no flaws, but because the problem needed some organization with enough leverage to cause reforms to happen to the health care delivery system in this country. That organization could only be the Federal Government.

I continue to be depressed by Romney’s about face on “RomneyCare”, the system he imposed on the State of Massachusetts. That state is the most financially stable state in the union. The per capita income is among the highest, if not the highest, among the 50 states. And they have a mandate that EVERYONE must participate in the program.

By Kathryn Mayer | September 28, 2012

Families buying non-group health insurance on their own in 2016 would pay nearly twice as much under the health proposals offered by presidential candidate Mitt Romney than under President Obama’s health reform law, a new report from Families USA claims.

Families USA is a prominent Washington, D.C.-based consumer advocacy group that supports health care reform.

Under Romney’s plan, families on average would pay $11,481 compared to $5,985 under Obama—a differential that includes comparative insurance premium payments as well as out-of-pocket costs paid by families when they receive health care, the report says.

The report uses national and state-by-state data to analyze and compare health care benefits and costs among three different plans: “RomneyCare” (the Massachusetts health law signed by then-Governor Mitt Romney in 2006), “ObamaCare” (the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, signed into law in March 2010), and “RomneyCandidateCare,” the health care proposals of presidential candidate Romney.

While there are “significant” similarities between ObamaCare and RomneyCare, the substantial difference lies between Romney’s new health care proposals.

“ObamaCare and the Massachusetts-based RomneyCare, on the one hand, and RomneyCandidateCare, on the other hand, are as different as day and night,” says Ron Pollack, executive director of Families USA.

Romney and running mate Paul Ryan have made the repeal and replacement of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act a top campaign goal.
Nationally, almost 42 million more Americans would lack health insurance without health reform, the report says, and those buying private insurance would pay almost twice as much under Romney than under Obama.

The group’s report also concluded that “RomneyCandidateCare” would “significantly” change Medicare by repealing benefits created by the PPACA.
Three health analysts who served as advisers on both the PPACA and Massachusetts health reform helped prepare the report.

The group’s report earned early backlash. The Romney camp called it “absurd,” while Forbes.com’s Avik Roy called the comparison “fatally flawed,” arguing the report makes inaccurate assumptions about Romney’s plan and doesn’t account for the PPACA’s tax hikes and Medicare cuts.

The Romney campaign said the report “assumes a fantasy world where Obamacare has actually worked. But Americans aren’t buying it. They’ve watched as provision after provision has failed, costs have skyrocketed, and Medicare has been cut by $716 billion. [The] report undermines the important health care debate our country should be having.”